There's an interesting take circulating about Venezuelan oil production ramping up and pushing global oil prices into a downward spiral. But here's the thing—if you actually follow commodity markets, the logic doesn't quite add up the way it's being pitched.

When supply chains shift dramatically, you get way more complexity than just 'more barrels = lower prices.' Geopolitical factors, refinery capacity, demand elasticity, OPEC dynamics—they all play into what happens next.

Something feels off about how cleanly this narrative is being sold. Either there's a deeper market understanding being oversimplified, or... well, the framing might not be entirely independent thinking.

Worth watching how oil actually trades against this prediction.