Looking at the hourly chart of ETH, the Bollinger Bands have already narrowed significantly—between 3109 and 3189, forming a classic tightening pattern. What does this mean? Simply put, volatility has died down, and a trend reversal could erupt at any moment.

From a technical perspective, the key is the middle band. The price has been hovering around the middle band these days, with bulls and bears in a deadlock. But the MACD shows some interesting signs—DIF and DEA are showing potential for a golden cross, which usually indicates that the bulls are quietly gathering strength. If DIF can stay above DEA, the hourly chart is likely to test the 3220 resistance level upward.

In terms of volume, it doesn't look impressive; the momentum bars haven't significantly expanded. However, I’m watching the data of large on-chain transfers—recently, whale addresses have accumulated slightly more. What does this suggest? Selling pressure is weakening, and support is gradually strengthening. Although this signal isn't particularly strong on its own, when combined with other factors, it remains somewhat credible.

Another on-chain detail is that ETH 2.0 staking amounts are gradually increasing, indicating a stronger willingness to lock in underlying chips. This indeed reduces the probability of a sharp short-term decline. Currently, there are no macro black swan events; the market sentiment is neutral to cautious, with technicals taking the lead.

What’s my strategy? Two directions:

**Bullish scenario**—if the price breaks above 3221 with volume and can hold above the Bollinger upper band, go long. The target is the previous high zone around 3280 to 3300.

**Bearish scenario**—if the price falls below 3109 and MACD turns into a death cross, be cautious. It might test support zones around 3050 to 3080. At that point, watch for panic transfers on-chain—that would be a true bottom signal.

Finally, a truth about trading: the biggest pitfall at the end of consolidation is frequent direction switching. I’ve already placed breakout orders, with stop-losses outside the range, letting the market reveal its own answer. Instead of constantly trading, it’s better to give the market time and space to make its choice.

ETH is now like a compressed spring, accumulating energy, ready to explode around the corner. Those with patience will ultimately profit—that’s the market’s law.