#预测市场 Seeing the Space project, my mind immediately flashed back to the UFO of 2021. Back then, UFO also broke into the top 100 on CMC driven by distribution capability and community consensus, with a market cap once surpassing 1.5 billion. Now, the same team is re-engaging in market prediction, using 10x leverage and the CLOB logic to do it all over again. Honestly, it feels a bit like déjà vu.

But upon closer inspection of this design, I’ve definitely learned something. The 50% revenue buyback and burn flywheel mechanism is more imaginative than simple token distribution — it’s using the economic model itself to promise value. I’ve seen too many projects between 2017 and 2018 that, after fundraising, started to dilute, with retail investors eventually holding the bag. This approach of directly linking platform growth to token value is at least logically consistent.

I’ve been observing the prediction market track for a while. Liquidity shortage has always been a fatal flaw; historically, Augur and Polymarket have gotten stuck here. Space’s use of zero-fee Maker to attract market makers isn’t a new idea, but combined with Solana’s high throughput, it indeed has a chance to invigorate the market. A $2.5 million funding round isn’t large today, but the 1360% oversubscription indicates that the market still recognizes this story.

What I pay more attention to is their user retention mechanism — gamified points, seasonal airdrops, referral multipliers. History has shown me that a good exchange product needs traffic, but even more so, it needs stickiness. UFO succeeded not just because of hype, but because it genuinely built a community. Whether Space can replicate this magic depends on whether their community governance can keep pace.

The public sale’s variable allocation model is well-designed, at least it looks like they want to escape the insider advantage dilemma. But this all-TGE unlock approach carries obvious risks — if early participants all dump, liquidity won’t matter. This scenario has repeated too many times in historical cycles.

Watch when you need to, but don’t get blinded by new concepts. Prediction markets are fundamentally zero-sum games; long-term value depends on how much real trading volume can be matched. Only when the platform launches in January will we see whether this project is a “cyclical story” or “long-term infrastructure.”