#美联储政策 The Bank of Japan's recent actions are worth paying attention to. From on-chain fund flow data, the global liquidity expectations directly influence the risk appetite of the crypto market.

EFG's analysis highlights a key logic: the high probability of maintaining low interest rates by the Bank of Japan before June next year indicates that the easing cycle among major global central banks will continue. Although the Federal Reserve is tightening, the slow pace of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank creates a hedge.

From a data perspective:
- In the short term, this expectation will support liquidity, and the increasing trend of whale wallet holdings may continue.
- A key timing point is the spring labor negotiations (which involve Japanese wage growth), as this will be a decisive factor for whether interest rate hikes can occur again before June.
- If wage growth remains weak, the certainty of continued easing increases, which corresponds to a rebound space for risk assets.

Currently, it is more about observing how large funds position themselves under this expectation. It is recommended to monitor contract holding data and stablecoin inflows to exchanges, as these signals can preemptively reflect market pricing of easing expectations.