This week's 3 sets of data worth paying attention to: US December Non-Farm Payrolls, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week, US December Non-Farm Payrolls!

After the Christmas and New Year holidays, the impact of seasonal unemployment rates and large and small Non-Farm Payrolls data in Europe and America has decreased, gradually returning to normal!
① Non-Farm Payrolls data, currently expected at 4.5, has recovered to the level of August-October, changing from -3.2 in November to 4.5, which is bearish for rate cuts; after the Christmas holiday ends and some unemployed people start new jobs for the new year, this value might increase again, providing further support for delaying the Fed's rate cuts! The Fed is not too concerned about private sector data, but a large gap could impact market sentiment!
② The number of initial jobless claims for the week has decreased for a month in a row, with the expected rebound indicating more people finding jobs, so fewer people are receiving unemployment benefits! This is a strong indicator of economic recovery, but since it is released weekly, its impact is relatively small!
③ Large Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, is expected to rise throughout 2025, with a rare decrease in the last month of 2025 from 4.6% to 4.5%. This reflects economic recovery, such as the end of the Christmas holiday, with companies and workers gradually returning to normal work; there will be a sentiment similar to China’s post-New Year job hunting. The expected value for non-farm employment is 5.5, significantly higher than the previous value, possibly related to the US government shutdown, but the market will only be frightened by the data from -10.5 to 5.5. The expected value is not yet higher than November’s 6.4, so it does not change the overall downward trend for 2025!
Summary: In the short term, the first shot of the new year is not conducive to immediate rate cuts, which may be delayed. From a long-term trend perspective, these data do not change the overall economic weakness in 2025, with rising unemployment and decreasing employment supporting the case for rate cuts!
Therefore, this week, be sure to push protection orders and avoid frequent chasing of gains and losses. If you can withstand the trigger points for protection during large and small Non-Farm Payrolls, the market will have about 10 days of stability. The momentum has already started; it remains to be seen whether the market will continue or retreat again!
Summary: Volatility remains intense this week. After this week, indicators and fundamentals will tend to stabilize. The intense fluctuations this week are our opportunity to re-enter the market!

#美国12月大非农数据即将公布
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