Whales enter the market but no one is willing to buy, BTC faces a dilemma in the short term

On-chain data has revealed a concerning signal: a large number of crypto whales are transferring assets into exchanges, yet the market lacks corresponding buying power. This supply and demand imbalance is putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin’s price movement. According to the latest reports, over the past week, whales have transferred approximately $2.4 billion worth of crypto assets into major exchanges, hitting the highest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, net inflows of stablecoins have remained flat at only $42 million. This “entry without buy-in” phenomenon is becoming a key risk for the market.

Contradictory Signals Behind Whale Behavior

Inflow reaches new highs, but buying momentum is insufficient

In the past week, whales have transferred a total of $2.4 billion into exchanges, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for nearly equal parts of the inflow. Typically, large-scale fund inflows from personal wallets into exchanges are seen as two possible signals: one, potential preparation for selling; two, use as collateral in derivatives markets.

However, what’s more noteworthy is that this inflow of risk assets has not been accompanied by a significant increase in stablecoin inflows. Net stablecoin inflows are only about $42 million, mainly consisting of internal transfers between different blockchains rather than new purchasing power. This suggests that although selling pressure may be building, there isn’t enough on-exchange capital to absorb these sell-offs.

Divergence in Whale Behavior

It’s important to note that whale behavior is not uniform. On one hand, new whales are accumulating Bitcoin at the fastest rate in history, with over 100,000 BTC accumulated by fresh whales holding more than $120 billion worth of BTC. On the other hand, some whales are actively shorting Bitcoin and Ethereum, with total short positions reaching $109 million.

This divergence between bullish and bearish actions indicates a clear split in market sentiment. Some large holders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and continue to accumulate; others are using derivatives to short the market. This split further increases market uncertainty.

On-Chain Data Reveals True Pressure

Noticeable Disparity Between Deposit and Withdrawal Volumes

From Bitcoin’s on-chain activity, the long-term trend remains cautious. Single deposit transactions into exchanges have increased from 8-10 BTC to 22-26 BTC, indicating that large holders are consolidating their holdings.

Conversely, exchange outflows have significantly decreased. Average withdrawal sizes remain low at 5.5 to 8.3 BTC, suggesting that fewer holders are transferring Bitcoin into cold wallets for long-term storage. This “more deposits than withdrawals” pattern reflects a declining willingness among large holders to hoard long-term, while potential selling or hedging motives are increasing.

Market Faces a Critical Choice

In terms of price action, Bitcoin has risen about 1.27% in the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $93,170 before pulling back to around $92,600. While the short-term upward momentum persists, the increasing influx of whales into CEXs and the lack of buying momentum raise doubts about the sustainability of this rally.

Short-term Risks Cannot Be Ignored

This “whale entry but buyer absence” structure is a clear risk warning. When large assets flow into exchanges without new buying interest, downward pressure on prices will gradually emerge. Although the large accumulation by new whales provides some support, it’s insufficient to fully offset potential selling pressure from other whales.

In this supply-demand imbalance, Bitcoin’s short-term trend may enter a phase of high volatility and critical decision-making. The market could face several scenarios:

• If new buying interest remains weak, selling pressure may be released gradually, leading to a correction
• If new whale accumulation continues, it could support prices
• Derivatives market positioning may amplify volatility

Summary

The current Bitcoin market presents a complex picture: whale funds are flowing heavily into exchanges, but corresponding buying power is notably lacking, indicating an imbalance in supply and demand. Meanwhile, the divergence in whale behavior reflects high market disagreement. Although new whales’ accumulation offers some support, it’s not enough to eliminate short-term warning signals.

For investors, the key at this stage is to remain alert to short-term correction risks rather than blindly chasing gains. Monitoring whale behavior, CEX fund flows, and the relative strength of buy and sell pressures will be crucial for assessing future market directions.