#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal divergence of opinions at Fundstrat, I have to be honest—this is the most authentic reflection of the market.

Sean Farrell spoke very candidly: they serve aggressive investors with over 20% exposure to crypto assets, relying on active rebalancing to outperform the market; while Tom Lee serves institutional giants with 1-5% Bitcoin allocation, requiring long-term discipline. Two sets of logic, two different time horizons—can their views really be the same?

But this is exactly what I want to remind you—don't be hijacked by the words of influencers. Predictions like Bitcoin hitting new highs by the end of the year, reaching a historic high in January 2026, or a pullback to 60-65K in the first half of the year—all have underlying assumptions: their respective investor types, risk tolerances, and accumulation cycles are different.

My past experiences tell me that blindly following such opinions is the easiest way to suffer losses. The risk factors Sean mentioned—government shutdowns, Federal Reserve personnel changes, original holders selling off, miner pressure—these are the real variables that determine your account's fate. Bitcoin valuation in the "no man's land"? That's not good news; it's a warning signal, indicating volatility could happen at any time.

The key is to ask yourself: What is the nature of your funds? How much of a pullback can you tolerate? What is your holding cycle? Clarify these three questions first, then choose strategies that suit you, rather than following whoever is more famous. The secret to surviving on-chain isn't guessing the right direction; it's understanding what you're actually doing.