These past few days, Ethereum has broken above $3100, and the internet is filled with cheers of "bull market start." But honestly, looking at this wave of market activity, I’m a bit worried—this doesn’t look like a genuine rally; it’s clearly a game carefully orchestrated by capital.

Let's look at the most alarming data: $7.1 billion in leverage has flooded into the market all at once. It sounds impressive, but that precisely highlights the problem. Many people believe that a surge in the CVD index indicates strong buying pressure, but that’s not necessarily true. CVD only reflects capital flow over a few minutes to hours; it doesn’t determine long-term value. The recent ETH price increase isn’t driven by new demand growth but by short sellers being pushed to the brink.

What’s happening? Large funds are using concentrated buy orders to force short sellers into a corner. To cut losses, short sellers are forced to buy at high prices to close their positions, pushing the price upward. Then what? Retail investors see the market booming and rush in to buy in. Once the big players have offloaded their positions, the rally collapses. How many times has this cycle played out in the crypto circle?

Even more concerning is the divergence between leverage and price. While ETH hits new highs, leverage also surges to $7.1 billion, which is a classic "risk accumulation signal." According to historical patterns, when leverage reaches this level, the probability of a correction within the next week exceeds 80%. Plus, with $1 billion entering the market in 24 hours, it may look like a fierce rally on the surface, but in reality, it could just be a "self-reinforcing cycle" by big players—buying with one hand and selling with the other—to create a false sense of prosperity and trap retail investors as bagholders.

There’s another detail worth mentioning. Among those short positions that got liquidated, many claim to be "professional analysts." They previously swore that ETH would correct and fall back, but in the end, they were crushed by big capital. This shows one thing: in the crypto market, there’s no such thing as an "inevitable trend." The so-called "certainty" is often a signal of the next risk. Those who dare to bet on the big direction either get rich overnight or go bankrupt overnight—there’s no gray area.

My advice? At this point, staying calm is the most important. With high leverage, capital pushing the market, and risk signals all around, blindly following the trend could be digging your own grave. Be defensive where needed, reduce your positions where necessary, and don’t get blinded by the words "bull market."