Last night, watching the market, BTC surged by 2.3% in one go, and the community exploded. Those new to the market were so excited: "The bull market is here, go all in!" When asked why, it turned out that a senior politician from a major country said that negotiations "should go very smoothly." This is ridiculous.

Is the logic of the crypto market now reduced to this? Can a single sentence determine the direction of the coin price? Having been in this circle for many years, I’ve seen too many emotion-driven markets like this, which ultimately turn into trap trades. Instead of blindly following the trend, it’s better to clarify three logical points first.

**First Logic: The Transmission Chain of Macro Risk Appetite**

Many say that trade negotiations are a matter for traditional finance, and the crypto circle doesn’t need to care. Wrong. The core lies in the risk appetite of global investors. Once international negotiations head in a positive direction, meaning economic friction eases, investor sentiment shifts from "insurance first" to "seeking returns." They will withdraw money from safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds and move into high-risk, high-reward markets like crypto. Conversely, if negotiations collapse, risk aversion surges, the dollar strengthens, and crypto assets usually decline as well. Now, with institutional funds accounting for an increasing proportion, this macro sentiment directly influences their trading pace.

**Second Logic: Policy Expectations Do Not Equal Policy Outcomes**

This is the easiest trap to fall into. Looking back at history, before the trade negotiations in 2019, that US leader also made optimistic statements, and what happened? The crypto market rallied for three days before crashing. The actual negotiations didn’t produce any substantial results; the gap between expectation and reality wiped out the previous gains entirely. This cycle has happened more than once.

**Third Logic: Who Is Driving the Market**

The key is to figure out whether this rally is driven by retail sentiment or by large institutions building positions. If it’s purely emotional follow-up, the risk is very high. Once policy expectations reverse, retail enthusiasm can fade even faster. So next time you see a sudden surge, it’s best to check trading volume and block trades—don’t just listen to stories.

Overall, there are opportunities in this market, but also many traps. Positive policy signals can indeed boost the market, but from "a single sentence" to actual money landing, the time lag and expectation gap are often the best windows for trapping retail investors.