Looking at recent on-chain data, the actions of large Bitcoin holders are quite interesting. According to Glassnode statistics, over the past 30 days, long-term holders have increased their BTC holdings by approximately 10,700 coins, marking the first time since July that their position has turned positive from negative. For several months prior, these holders had been reducing their positions and continuously selling off.

Another detail is that BTC on exchanges is also flowing out, indicating what? Short-term selling pressure is diminishing, and more chips are being locked in the hands of long-term holders rather than being ready to dump at any moment.

From this perspective, it’s not surprising to see a phased bottom around the 80,000 level. The large holders who sold Bitcoin from July to November are now making some defensive re-accumulation at this price level. The main goal is to avoid the embarrassment of Bitcoin continuing to plummet without any opportunity to buy in. This kind of operation is actually quite common, and in terms of scale, it’s not considered aggressive at all.

My personal view is this: a bottom around 80,000 is completely normal. The defensive buying by whales who previously sold off is also normal, and the amount is not large. I believe that after this phased bottom, Bitcoin is very likely to rise again, possibly reaching levels like 98,000 or 106,000. But from a medium to long-term perspective, the bear market pattern has not changed. Unless there is a substantial positive catalyst like large-scale QE, it will be difficult to turn the tide.