ETH's current trend is a bit tense—gains are indeed impressive, but this height is starting to feel risky.

Looking at a set of data makes it clear how severe the internal divergence is: shorts were liquidated by $27 million yesterday, retail traders are aggressively increasing long positions on spot exchanges (Bitfinex's long ratio reaching 98.7%), but large traders are actively shorting in the futures market (BitMEX's short ratio at 66.6%).

What does this phenomenon indicate? Old funds are gradually offloading, while new retail traders are chasing higher prices. However, from the overall trend, there are no clear signals of a reversal yet.

**Technical outlook?**

The RSI has already surged near 70, so a short-term correction is quite likely. The current approach should be: don't rush to chase; wait for a clear correction. If ETH pulls back to the 3080-3110 range, consider gradually building positions; if it continues to decline to 3040-3070, that’s an opportunity to add more.

One stop-loss level to remember: if it falls below 3020, it indicates the short-term structure might be broken, and you should exit promptly.

Based on the current pace, there is still room for a rebound to around 3400. Once reaching this high, consider shifting to a short position, as the overall trend remains weak.

The core of trading is probability—we need to find the entry points with the highest win rate.