#2026年比特币行情展望 Staying in the crypto world for a long time really doesn't rely on intelligence—it's about that "silly" discipline.

I've seen too many people obsessed with studying all kinds of complex indicators, staring at K-lines late into the night, yet still losing money all the way down. Only later did I realize a truth: the simplest methods are often the most effective and easiest to stick with.

I use the three basic tools of "trend + position sizing + moving averages" to survive multiple bull and bear cycles. Today, I’ll break down this "lazy trading method."

**1. Only act when the moving average is upward**

This is the first hurdle. The price must be above a key moving average (20-day, 60-day are fine), and the moving average itself should be flat or trending upward before you consider taking action. Once the moving average turns downward, even if the market is hot, stay away.

Many say it's hard to judge the trend, but that's not true—trend is your protective talisman. Going against it is like running into a headwind; what comes at you is a big truck.

**2. Never fully commit your position at once**

Divide your total funds into four parts. When the price first breaks above the short-term moving average, try a tentative entry with 10% of your total funds. If the market confirms the trend, add another 30%. After breaking through a key resistance level, add 40%. Keep the remaining 20% as cash for emergencies.

What's the benefit of this? Even if the first move turns out to be wrong, losses are controlled. When a rebound comes, you still have bullets to continue. Conversely, those who lose everything in one shot in crypto are not because they guessed wrong but because they didn't scale in—they went all in at once.

**3. Moving averages are your "traffic lights"**

After buying, as long as the price doesn't fall below your set key moving average (like the 20-day), hold steady. Once it breaks below, decisively exit—don't wait for a rebound.

Moving averages give you the clearest signals from the market. If it breaks the moving average, it indicates a change in momentum. Instead of hoping for a rebound, be decisive.

**4. Be strategic when selling**

At a high point, if the price falls below the short-term moving average, first cut half of your position to lock in profits. Set a trailing stop for the remaining position; if the trend reverses, exit completely.

The ironic part is: many people's buy points are very precise, but because they can't bear to sell, they end up turning profits into losses.

**Why do "silly methods" actually win?**

Complex strategies require intense focus and execution, which most people can't sustain. But simple rules are different—they suppress emotions and create mechanical reactions, so you won't panic during market fluctuations.

The market has never rewarded the "hardest working" but only the "most disciplined."

If you're tired of complicated but inefficient operations, try this "silly method." Use preset rules to replace frequent guessing, patience to replace anxiety. This is the right attitude to cycle through the market.

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