Gold Scenario 2024-2030: when gold will surpass $3,000

Gold continues to write an intriguing story about global markets. Our analyses indicate a convincing bullish trajectory in the coming years, with the market expected to reach $3,000 in 2025 and continue up to $5,000 by 2030. But what truly drives this dynamic?

The milestones of our gold price scenario

Here are the targets that will guide the market in the next few years:

• 2024: Range $1,900-$2,600 (goal reached by August)
• 2025: Range $2,300-$3,100
• 2026: Range $2,800-$3,900
• 2030: Peak target $5,000

This is not a random forecast. It is the result of six years of methodical research into the dynamics that truly move gold. Unlike many social media comments, our framework analyzes structural factors, not fleeting opinions.

The global breakout confirming the trend

A often overlooked fact: since the beginning of 2024, gold has not been hitting new highs only in dollars. It has started breaking upward in every major currency simultaneously – euro, pound, yen, Canadian dollar. This synchronicity is the definitive signal of a genuine bull market, not just a dollar devaluation.

Why the gold market will accelerate: the role of expected inflation

If we had to identify the main engine of gold, it would not be supply/demand or recessions. It is the expectation of future inflation. Historically, the correlation between gold prices and the ETF TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) is extraordinarily strong.

What does this mean? When investors expect inflation to remain high in the coming years, gold rises. When they fear deflation, it falls. Current monetary dynamics – with M2 steadily increasing and the consumer price index accelerating steadily – create exactly the environment gold prefers.

Decisive charts: the underlying structure of gold

The 50-year secular cycle

Looking at the gold chart over the past five decades reveals a powerful pattern: two bullish reversal formations. The first in the '80s-'90s (descending wedge of 10+ years) generated an extraordinary bull market. The second, between 2013 and 2023, created a cup and handle pattern that is just completing.

The rule is simple: the longer the consolidation, the more powerful the subsequent move. This tells us that the gold rally still has many years ahead.

The 20-year chart: acceleration in sight

On a 20-year timeframe, we see that bull markets in gold tend to start slowly, then accelerate dramatically in the final years of the phase. The current early stage suggests a multi-year timeline before the true spike.

Indicators guiding the next move

The currency factor: EURUSD

Gold behaves inversely to the US dollar. When the euro weakens the dollar, gold rises. The secular EURUSD chart shows a constructive pattern – a favorable environment for gold in the coming quarters.

Treasuries and the rate path

Treasury yields are another critical element. In 2023, rates peaked. Since then, global prospects for rate cuts have strengthened gold. If yields remain contained (scenario likely), gold will have tailwinds.

The futures market: the “squeeze factor”

In the COMEX gold market, commercial short positions remain very large. Historically, when these shorts are so extensive, they act as a ceiling – prices cannot be “suppressed” too much before these traders close their positions. Conversely, there is limited potential for short expansion, temporarily capping explosive upside. This scenario supports a gradual bullish trend, not a vertical one.

How institutions see 2025

Major bank forecasts for 2025 show interesting convergence around $2,700-$2,800:

• Goldman Sachs: $2,700 by early 2025
• Bloomberg: Range $1,709-$2,727 (high uncertainty)
• UBS: $2,700 mid-2025
• BofA: $2,750 (with potential $3,000)
• Citi Research: average $2,875, range $2,800-$3,000
• J.P. Morgan: $2,775-$2,850
• Commerzbank: $2,600 mid-2025
• ANZ: $2,805 by end of 2025

Our estimate of $3,100 for 2025 reflects a more optimistic view based on underlying factors – especially persistent monetary growth and expected inflation.

Gold vs Silver: the next phase belongs to the gray metal

Many ask: focus on gold or silver? The pragmatic answer: buy gold now, wait for silver in a subsequent phase.

Historically, in precious metal bull markets, silver accelerates after gold has gained momentum for years. The gold/silver ratio over 50 years suggests a target $50 for silver is reasonable – representing a significant revaluation from current levels. The next cycle phase, likely in 2025-2026, could see silver catch up.

When the thesis becomes invalid

A critical level to watch: $1,770. If gold drops and remains stably below this support, the multi-year bullish thesis collapses. The probability of this event? Very low, given the macroeconomic context. But it’s our “line in the sand” to recalibrate the analysis.

Track record: six years of accurate forecasts

From 2019 to 2023, our annual estimates hit the gold price ranges with surprising accuracy. The only exception: 2021, when we estimated $2,200-$2,400 without realization. This humility in acknowledging errors is part of the process. But the underlying methodology – based on charts, monetary dynamics, and intermarket correlations – remains solid.

Final questions: how high can gold really go?

In 5 years (2030)? $4,500-$5,000 is realistic under normal conditions. $5,000 could be a psychological barrier.

Can it reach $10,000? Only in extreme scenarios: 1970s inflation, acute geopolitical crises, currency collapse. This is not our baseline scenario.

After 2030? Impossible. Each decade brings unique macroeconomic dynamics. Trying to forecast beyond 10 years is pure illusion.

Conclusion: the gold market is on the move

The analysis converges on a coherent view: the market is destined to rise in the coming years. It will not be a vertical explosion – short positions in the futures market will prevent that. Instead, it will be a sustained climb, fueled by persistent inflation, monetary growth, and favorable currency factors.

For investors, 2025 and 2026 will be crucial years to accumulate gold before more aggressive phases in the next decade.