Bitcoin Eyes $112K Resistance: Can Uptober Reverse The Recent Downturn?

The Current Landscape

Bitcoin stands at $109,500 this week, mirroring levels from seven days prior. While both spot and futures markets showed relative stability, the underlying sentiment tells a different story. On September 26, CoinGlass reported liquidations exceeding $850 million across leveraged positions within just 24 hours—a sobering reminder of how quickly conviction evaporates in volatile markets.

Macro Headwinds Intensifying Selling Pressure

The recent selloff stems from a combination of macroeconomic and technical factors. Mid-September brought inflation data that surprised to the upside, prompting concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance. Simultaneously, the US dollar reached multi-month highs, triggering a broad rotation away from risk assets. Equities bore the brunt, with global stocks posting their worst performance in three weeks—a spillover effect that hasn’t spared cryptocurrencies.

Adding fuel to the fire, Reuters reported on September 25 that stronger-than-expected US economic data rekindled debates about the pace of potential rate cuts. This uncertainty has kept investors on edge, with risk-off sentiment dominating market behavior.

Technical Picture Remains Challenged

From a charting perspective, Bitcoin has broken below its ascending channel, leaving price action constrained by a downward trendline. Resistance clusters around $112,000, with secondary levels at $113,000 and $114,000. The 50 and 100-period simple moving averages both slope downward, creating a bearish crossover pattern that reinforces selling pressure.

Candlestick formations near $109,500 reveal market indecision. Low-bodied candles indicate hesitation among participants, while extended upper wicks suggest sellers are repelling attempts to push higher. The RSI indicator sits at 36—just above the oversold threshold—hinting that relief bounces may emerge, though a sustained reversal has yet to materialize.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support lies at $107,000, $105,000, and $102,000. Breaking below these would signal deeper weakness. On the upside, a daily close above $112,000 would be a first signal of momentum potentially returning for an Uptober rally. The $113,000 and $114,000 zones represent more substantial resistance points that would need to be reclaimed for a bullish thesis to gain traction.

The Path Forward

As market participants navigate macro uncertainty and technical headwinds, Bitcoin’s ability to hold $107,000 will be critical. Until conviction returns—whether from Fed pivot signals or sustained technical recovery—the path of least resistance remains to the downside.