OTC trading institutions focus on Q1 2026 policy window: Seven key events pending

As the New Year countdown begins, institutional trading departments are increasingly cautious. According to industry analysts, a series of significant policy signals are expected to emerge at the start of 2026, which could become a major driving force for the upward movement of the crypto market.

Intensive Decision Period: January 1 to the end of January

Actions from U.S. regulators will be the first to take effect. The announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee is expected in early January, and this appointment will directly influence the monetary policy tone for 2026. Following that, the Supreme Court will make rulings on tariff issues, involving a revaluation of the macroeconomic environment. Simultaneously, the Clarity Act will enter the revision and review stage, which industry insiders believe could bring new possibilities for the regulation framework of crypto assets.

Key Decision Dates at a Glance

On January 15, MSCI will announce whether to include crypto-related stocks in relevant indices, which is crucial for traditional institutional allocation decisions. The FOMC policy meeting on January 28 will signal interest rate expectations. Additionally, the U.S. government funding deadline on January 30 may trigger a new round of fiscal policy adjustments.

Furthermore, updates on the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) by banking regulators are also expected to be rolled out gradually, affecting financial institutions’ ability to allocate funds to crypto trading departments.

Market Expectations Foundation

The clustering of these events occurs just after the wave of tax-loss selling subsides, large-scale options contracts are settled, and off-exchange trading positions have largely been liquidated. Most institutional traders believe that increasing policy certainty will bring new allocation opportunities in over-the-counter trading. Currently, the cautious period before January 1 has become the final window for precise institutional forecasting.