Bitcoin's Average Deal Size Shrinks Sharply Amid Holiday Season Volatility

On-chain data analytics from ChainCatcher reveal a striking contraction in the typical value of individual Bitcoin transactions throughout December. On-chain researcher Murphy (@Murphychen888) documented that between mid-December and the final days of the month, the median transaction size compressed from approximately $46,610 to near $24,897—a substantial retreat of close to 47%.

Price Stability Masks Underlying Transaction Patterns

What makes this development particularly noteworthy is that Bitcoin’s spot price demonstrated remarkable resilience during the same window, hovering steadily between $87,000 and $88,000. This decoupling between price action and transaction magnitudes points toward deeper shifts in market participant behavior rather than directional conviction.

Concentration Metrics Remain Steady

The blockchain’s chip distribution figures tell an equally intriguing story. From December 25 through December 30, the concentration metric held firm at 14.4%, suggesting that while retail-sized transactions dominated activity, major stakeholders maintained their positioning without aggressive repositioning.

Why Large Transactions Cooled Off

Murphy attributes the transaction contraction primarily to seasonal factors affecting institutional and Western market participants. The holiday period, extending from mid-December through year-end, typically corresponds with reduced trading desk activity and diminished capital redeployment among U.S.-based investors. This temporary compression in transaction sizes directly correlates with reduced capital flows entering the market during a traditionally slower epoch.

What Comes Next?

The analyst outlines two plausible trajectories as liquidity normalizes in 2025: either chip concentration metrics will persistently climb until reaching a critical threshold triggering a dramatic correction, or the market may experience an accelerated downward adjustment in concentration levels sooner than expected. Both scenarios underscore the importance of monitoring on-chain metrics as leading indicators of potential price movements.

Current Bitcoin pricing sits near $91,170, suggesting modest appreciation since the analysis period.