In-Depth On-Chain Data Analysis: Key Signal Interpretation of Bitcoin and Ethereum

In the tumultuous crypto markets, on-chain data has become an essential tool for gaining insights into market dynamics. Currently, key indicators for Bitcoin and Ethereum reveal deep-seated changes underway. Let’s understand the real significance of these shifts through specific metrics.

Technical Breakthrough Signals for Bitcoin

The Fifth Golden Cross Approaching

Bitcoin has just experienced its fifth golden cross—a noteworthy technical signal. Historical data shows that the previous four occurrences were all accompanied by explosive rallies: the first increased by 87%, the second by 47%, the third by 78%, and the fourth by 33%. Each triggered significant market movements.

But why is this time worth expecting? Because beyond technicals, macro factors are shifting. The yield curve between 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries is changing, and liquidity pressures are easing. It’s like a spring being compressed to its limit—underlying forces are building up.

Liquidity Turning Point and Market Sentiment Reversal

The current market presents a unique combination: technical confirmation of the golden cross, macro liquidity conditions easing, yet most traders remain bearish. This extreme pessimism could actually serve as the best contrarian indicator.

On-Chain Holdings Data Revealing the Truth

Exchange Data Shows Accumulation, Not Panic

From exchange reserve data, despite Bitcoin’s price oscillating around $90,000, investor behavior indicates true sentiment: large amounts of BTC are flowing out of exchanges. Over the past week, exchange reserves decreased by about 30,000 BTC.

This phenomenon has two implications. First, buy volume exceeds sell volume. Second, most holders remain stable in their sentiment, showing little sensitivity to short-term price swings. This is not panic selling but confidence in long-term prospects.

Consistent Buying by High-Net-Worth Investors

More notably, different investor groups behave divergently. High-net-worth investors holding over 10 BTC have maintained a steady accumulation trend over the past year, largely unaffected by price fluctuations. In contrast, smaller holders with less than 10 BTC have been continuously selling, especially since March 2025, remaining in a selling stance.

This divergence reflects genuine market perception: institutions and large players are optimistic about the long-term, while retail investors are troubled by short-term uncertainties.

Structural Shift in Corporate Treasury Holdings

Since 2023, the total Bitcoin holdings of public and private companies have increased from 197,000 to 1.08 million BTC—a 448% rise. This is not just an increase in purchase volume but a fundamental strategic shift. Companies are no longer viewing Bitcoin as a speculative asset but are incorporating it into their balance sheets as a strategic asset. This indicates large-scale institutional adoption rather than a short-term trend.

Ethereum’s Multi-Dimensional Evaluation Framework

On-Chain Chip Structure Concerns and Opportunities

Unlike Bitcoin’s scarcity, Ethereum faces a more complex chip structure. No fixed supply cap, large amounts of early profit-taking chips still held, and insufficient consensus strength to lock up excess supply—all these factors demand a more rigorous bottom-fishing standard for ETH.

The current LTH-NUPL value is 0.4, indicating that long-term holders are still in profit on paper. True bottoms often require LTH to experience painful unrealized losses first. This indicator has not yet reached extreme panic levels.

Profit Supply Ratio as a Reference

The current ETH-PSIP is 61.7%, meaning nearly 40% of circulating supply is underwater. When this ratio drops below 50%, it indicates that over half of the circulating supply is at a loss, and the valuation begins to improve significantly—often corresponding to a cyclical bottom.

Key Cost Lines for Different Investor Groups

Cost basis varies among holders. Currently, the average cost for 1k-10k ETH holders is about $2,260, while whales holding over 100k ETH have an average cost of around $2,599. Only when the price falls below these major investor groups’ cost lines can we consider there to be a genuine value advantage.

Comprehensive Momentum Score as a Decision Reference

By integrating on-chain data, behavior, and sentiment across six dimensions, a composite score can determine whether the market is in a “healthy upward” phase or experiencing “diminishing momentum.” When the score is below 1 (deep purple zone), it indicates a structural correction with almost all upward support conditions missing, signaling a defensive market stance.

Currently, none of the four standard criteria are fully met. It’s advisable to consider tentative positions only when at least two are satisfied, and to increase positions when three or more are met.

Market Liquidity Panorama

Stablecoins: The Market’s “Reserve Ammunition”

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is a key metric for measuring market buying power. A low SSR indicates ample stablecoin reserves, “ammunition” to push prices higher. Conversely, a high SSR suggests limited buying capacity. The current SSR level directly influences whether the market can sustain further upward momentum.

Real Reflection of Capital Flows

On the 90-day moving average, the daily transfer volume of stablecoins (USDT+USDC) is about $192 billion, twice the combined transfer volume of the top five cryptocurrencies. USDC accounts for approximately $124 billion, USDT about $68 billion. In comparison, Bitcoin’s daily on-chain transfer value is around $81 billion, and Ethereum’s is just $7.9 billion.

This indicates a significant liquidity shift: stablecoins are gradually becoming the primary liquidity channel in the market, while native asset transfers are relatively weaker. The implications of this trend require ongoing observation.

Market Signals from Long-Term Holders

SOPR Indicator Reaches New Lows

Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to the lows of this cycle. When SOPR > 1, long-term holders are selling in profit; at 1, break-even; below 1, selling at a loss. Low SOPR levels often signal that the market is approaching cycle bottoms or the end of a bear market.

Realized Profit and Loss Trends

By examining the 365-day moving average of realized profit and loss ratios, we can gauge market overheating or excessive panic. During bull markets, this ratio tends to be high; during bear markets, low. Its current position directly reflects the overall profit/loss status and sentiment of market participants.

Significance of Actual Market Cost Price

Bitcoin falling to its real market cost price (TMMP) often signifies a major purge of speculative bubbles. This indicator, which excludes miner-produced Bitcoin and focuses on actual secondary market transactions, helps identify overbought or oversold conditions. Prices far above TMMP suggest a bubble; below TMMP indicates potential buying opportunities.

Derivatives Market Insights

Open Interest and Funding Rates Rising

As prices rebound above $90,000, open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts increased from 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC (about 2% growth), and funding rates rose from 0.04% to 0.09%. This combination reflects increasing leverage long positions, with traders preparing for possible year-end moves.

Options Market Panic Sentiment

Six-month put options premiums for BTC have surged to levels seen during the Luna collapse in 2022, indicating extreme market fear of further downside.

Four-Year Cycle Perspective

Based on historical cycle analysis, the previous cycle’s top lasted 1,136 days, the last cycle 1,143 days, and this cycle has now reached 988 days. Combining other indicators suggests the market may still be in a consolidation phase, but rebound potential remains significant.

Classic five-line charts show key levels at $46,390, $68,952, $102,795, $159,201, and $249,449, which are valuable reference points for understanding market structure.

2025 Asset Performance Comparison

Looking at global assets, silver rose 130%, gold 65%, copper 35%, S&P 500 16%, while Bitcoin declined 6%, Ethereum fell 12%, and altcoins dropped 42%. This panic sentiment should, in theory, be an excellent entry point for accumulating cryptocurrencies.

Overall Assessment and Insights

Multiple signals are present in the current market. Technically, the golden cross is confirmed; on-chain data shows institutional and large-holder accumulation; liquidity is improving; but market sentiment remains cautious. Despite Ethereum’s structural concerns, multi-dimensional indicators reaching certain thresholds also present opportunities for participation.

This on-chain metrics-based analysis framework aims to improve investment certainty and avoid noise and emotional interference. In a market full of information, patience and waiting for multiple indicators to confirm entry points is often the most pragmatic strategy for retail investors.