Exchanges continue to see net inflows, but BTC remains steady? Do you understand this "turnover" in 2025?

The Paradox Behind the Phenomenon

Recently, on-chain data flashed red lights: over 2,500 BTC flowed into major exchanges in the past 24 hours. According to classical theory, such large inflows often signal imminent selling and a risk of price decline. Retail investors should have already been scared and fleeing.

But the actual market movement defies this logic—BTC remains firmly around $91,000, and at times even breaks out with high-volume bullish candles. Is the data lying, or have our market understandings become outdated?

Retail Panic, Institutions Strategize

A careful breakdown of this data reveals the full truth:

The signals from retail investors are clearly retreating. Google search interest has plummeted, small transaction counts have dropped by 66%, and market participation enthusiasm has hit a freezing point. These funds are gradually exiting.

Meanwhile, institutional capital has never stopped entering. In 2025 alone, Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved over $25 billion in net inflows. Major global asset managers continue to increase holdings, silently supporting the price with large buy orders.

This is not a sell-off wave but an unprecedented “chip transfer”. Emotional retail investors are being systematically pushed out of the market; the coins they hold are being massively transferred into institutional vaults. This marks a restructuring of the market architecture.

The Transition Between Old and New Cycles

The logic of the old cycle has long become invalid. The previous pattern of “retail FOMO → rapid rise → concentrated sell-off → crash” has been thoroughly replaced by a new model.

The new cycle is characterized by: continuous buying by institutional funds, gradually absorbing all selling pressure, with prices locked at high levels by institutional capital, and the bottom permanently elevated. Large inflows into exchanges now mainly come from OTC block trades and subsequent asset custody operations by institutions, rather than scattered retail deposits. Market dominance has completely shifted.

Risks of Being Left Behind and New Strategies

In this market landscape, the traditional “being left” logic is also being rewritten. Retail investors are prone to emotional chasing—buying high or selling low and getting trapped—while institutions mitigate this risk through long-term holdings and phased accumulation.

The new market environment requires investors to upgrade their observation dimensions:

• Upward, focus on macro factors—monitor weekly ETF capital flows, Federal Reserve policy signals, and corporate holdings. These are the true drivers of price movements.

• Downward, track on-chain activity—follow the real movements of whale wallets, verify cross-chain asset flows in real-time, and observe anti-manipulation price indicators. On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts.

Final Reflection

The market is entering a new phase. The old map no longer leads to new lands. Those who can quickly adapt to the institutionalized era, master the truth of data, and avoid being trapped by retail-driven moves will be the next wave of wealth harvesters. Retail investors’ opportunities lie not in frequent trading but in understanding the deep structural changes in the market.

Have you already felt this shift?