The recent market trend is indeed quite particular. After carefully analyzing the opportunities for both bulls and bears, the conclusion is that the current odds are not very favorable.

From a bullish perspective, the range resistance still exists, and the key point is that a series of dense data releases will occur next week. Especially the microstrategy index event on January 15th. Making a rash long position before this could easily lead to pitfalls, and the risk premium is not worth it.

Turning to the bears? The situation is not optimistic either. The bullish momentum is still evident, with prices repeatedly oscillating at high levels. A moment of carelessness could result in a reverse spike.

Weighing the pros and cons, my current choice is to pause trading. It’s not that I don’t want to make money, but I want to wait for a clearer opportunity with a more reasonable risk-reward ratio. Sometimes, the best move is to stay put.