Will the turnaround in 2026 begin? Analysts point out the possibility of cryptocurrencies catching up with gold and stocks

The cryptocurrency market is now approaching a major turning point. According to the Polymarket prediction market, the probability that Bitcoin will perform the best among assets in 2026 has reached 40%, surpassing gold (33%) and stocks (25%). But why did crypto lag significantly in 2025? And is a comeback truly possible?

Defeat in 2025: Gold and Stocks Dominate

Looking back at the 2025 market, a major shift in investor capital flows becomes evident.

Performance since early November

• Gold: +9%
• S&P 500: +1%
• Bitcoin: approximately -20% (around $88,000)

Furthermore, on an annual basis, the gap is clear.

2025 Annual Performance

• Gold: nearly +70% from the start of the year
• Silver: approximately +150%
• Bitcoin: approximately -6%

Gold’s strength is also recorded technically. According to data from CoBeSee Letter, gold has exceeded its 200-day moving average for about 550 consecutive trading sessions, the second-longest streak on record, following the period after the 2008 financial crisis. This reflects investors’ preference for traditional assets as inflation hedges.

Why Did Bitcoin Lag?

Bitcoin bulls expected 2025 to see a significant rise in BTC due to a decline in trade (inflation hedge asset preference). In early October, it even rose to around $126,000, but then sharply declined. By year-end, it fell below $90,000.

However, market analysts point out that this decline is not due to structural weakness but is a timing issue.

Re7 Capital portfolio manager, Lead Garrett, explains: “Gold has led Bitcoin by about 26 weeks. The stagnation of gold last summer is very similar to Bitcoin’s pause today. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow gold, but with greater volatility.”

In other words, gold rises first, followed by Bitcoin — this has been the pattern in past cycles. When liquidity conditions improve and speculative capital returns, Bitcoin tends to rebound more significantly.

Key On-Chain Signals: Changes in Whale Behavior

Signs of a turnaround are already emerging. Market intelligence firm Sentiment reports interesting on-chain data.

In late 2025, the pace of accumulation by large Bitcoin holders (whales) slowed down, while small wallet buying activity increased. This is called a late-cycle distribution pattern. A bullish reversal typically occurs when large holders start accumulating while small investors begin selling.

Another noteworthy point is that long-term Bitcoin holders stopped selling after six months, with positions stabilizing after decreasing from 14.8 million BTC in July to 14.3 million BTC in December. This can be seen as an early sign of strengthening holdings.

Gareth Jin, former CEO of BitForex, also points out early signs of capital rotation. According to Nansen data, active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.5% in 24 hours, while transaction counts decreased — a pattern more related to accumulation than speculation.

“The short squeeze in metals is over. Capital is starting to return to crypto,” Jin said.

2026: Will It Be the Year to Close the Gap?

Investor Cyril XBT offers insightful views. He describes the current situation as a “typical late-cycle positioning before a shift” and adds, “Markets often move before the story catches up.”

Sentiment analysts agree: “Bitcoin and crypto are significantly lagging behind other major assets. But historically, such delays, when sentiment and liquidity reverse, create substantial room for future catch-up.”

If liquidity conditions ease and macro risks increase, Bitcoin could resume its historical role, surpassing both gold and stocks. The lag in 2025 might hold the explosive potential for 2026.

In conclusion, it all comes down to a statement from Sentiment: “The opportunity for crypto to catch up remains very much alive.”

#BTC