#PUMP PUMP Short-term difficulty in sustaining upward movement, medium-term rebound relies on strong catalysts, long-term requires breakthroughs in ecosystem and regulation (as of 2025-12-27 07:40, price approximately $0.001801, down 0.4% in 24h, down 10.39% in 7D, down 34.62% in 30D).

1. Core Judgments and Key Evidence

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Bearish dominance, rebounds are hard to sustain. Large whales continue to sell off (on December 23, there was a large transfer of $7.57 million), buybacks (about $1 million daily) cannot offset selling pressure; technical indicators show MACD bearish, Stochastic RSI oversold but no reversal signal, key resistance at $0.0021, support at $0.00172, breaking below or testing $0.0015.
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Rebound depends on strong catalysts. Requires Solana ecosystem warming, platform upgrades, easing regulatory risks; if it stabilizes above $0.0021 and breaks through resistance at $0.0023-$0.0025, it could open up to $0.0026; otherwise, it continues downward.
- Long-term (6-12 months): Depends on ecosystem transformation and fundamental improvements. Projects need to expand from meme launchpad to trading tools, cross-chain services, etc., to enhance token utility; also need to address regulatory and competitive pressures, with 40% locked supply unlocking potentially adding selling pressure.

2. Bull and Bear Drivers and Risks

- Bullish factors: 100% revenue buyback support; potential recovery of Solana ecosystem; token MC/Rev ratio about 4.36 times, relatively cheap valuation.
- Bearish factors: Whale selling, 35% decline over 30D; regulatory uncertainty; meme coin popularity waning; unlocking sell pressure and liquidity risks.

3. Trading Strategies (Two-way)

- Long: Only consider small positions when support at $0.00172 holds and a volume breakout above $0.0021 occurs, stop-loss at $0.00165, target $0.0023-$0.0025.
- Short: Enter on rebound to $0.0021-$0.0023 resistance, stop-loss at $0.0024, target $0.0017, break below to $0.0015.

4. Conclusions and Action Checklist

Conclusion: Short-term difficulty in sustaining gains, mainly trade rebounds short; wait for fundamental and market signals to resonate in the medium term; long-term focus on ecosystem expansion and unlocking pace.

Action Checklist:

1. Watch for breakout/breakdown of support at $0.00172 and resistance at $0.0021.
2. Check whale wallet and buyback data daily (Jin10 data can be tracked).
3. Follow announcements on Solana ecosystem, regulation, and project upgrades.
4. Strict position control, no single trade exceeding 5% of total funds, stop-loss not wider than 3%-5%.