Analysis of Spot Gold on December 26

Previously, spot gold exhibited a "rise and fall—oscillating rebound" fluctuation pattern, with the highest touching $4525/oz during the session. After pulling back to a low of $4450/oz during the US trading hours, buying interest in the early morning pushed the price back up to around $4480/oz, essentially recovering the intraday decline and demonstrating market resilience amid high-level oscillations. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen over 60%, continuously supported by safe-haven demand and easing expectations, constantly hitting new all-time highs.
The Federal Reserve completed three consecutive rate cuts in December, with market expectations of a further 50 basis points cut by 2026, reinforcing the monetary easing logic and providing core support for gold prices. However, CME’s "FedWatch Tool" indicates that the phased betting on rate cuts may intensify short-term volatility. The ongoing tension in the Middle East, with Israel’s Prime Minister planning to meet with the US President regarding Iran’s ballistic missile issues—raising the possibility of military action—adds uncertainty. Meanwhile, US-Venezuela relations have escalated, with the US intercepting Venezuelan oil tankers multiple times, and dual geopolitical conflicts continue to boost safe-haven buying. Additionally, high global debt risks and partial de-dollarization demands further highlight gold’s role as a store of value.
Resistance is focused on the $4500-4520/oz range, with $4525 acting as a recent high point resistance; support levels are at $4450-4430/oz, the recent low during the pullback and the previous sideways support zone. Stronger support is seen near the $4400/oz round number and the 50-day moving average. On the daily chart, gold prices are moving within a converging triangle pattern, with the trading range gradually narrowing. The RSI indicator is flat around 50, and the 4-hour short-term moving averages are turning flat, indicating balanced short-term bullish and bearish momentum, lacking clear directional signals. Confirmation of trend requires a breakout signal.
Trading Suggestions
In the short term, gold remains in a high-level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to focus on range trading with strict stop-loss settings:
Bullish opportunities: After a pullback to the $4450-4430/oz zone and stabilization, consider light long positions targeting $4500-4520/oz, with a stop-loss below $4420/oz.
Bearish opportunities: After a rebound to the $4500-4520/oz zone encounters resistance, try light short positions targeting $4460-4450/oz, with a stop-loss above $4530/oz.
These are personal suggestions only, for reference purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice.