Today is Friday, December 26th, and the market has ushered in Deribit's historic $23.4 billion options expiration.

The "biggest pain point" is at 96,000, and as usual, the price tends to gravitate towards the biggest pain point.
However, from the market data, things don't look so optimistic.

1. Bitcoin: "Tough choice" within the Inverted Cup and Handle pattern
Currently, BTC is still struggling within the "inverted handle" framework. Although the 4-hour chart has filled the downside gap, the downward trendline still acts as a heavy resistance.
* Pessimistic scenario: If it cannot stabilize here, it is likely to retest the previous low near 85,000 along the trendline.
* Optimistic scenario: Unless there is a violent breakout and a successful retest, there is a chance to fill the gap at 92,000 that has been lingering.

2. End-of-year dilemma: Divine battle and tax harvesting
The market is neither rising nor falling sharply, mainly due to liquidity drying up. Retail investors and funds are busy with "tax loss harvesting" to settle accounts, creating significant selling pressure.
Ethereum's 3000 level is even more chaotic: BlackRock appears to be taking profits from exchange holdings, but some institutions are calling for a $1 billion market entry.
Additionally, Ethereum treasury company Eth Zilla announced it will no longer hold ETH in the treasury, planning to sell ETH to ease financial pressure and switch to holding RWA assets.

3. Summary and strategy:
Currently, the crypto market is playing the "follow-down but not follow-up" game with the US stock market. Overall, the trend remains a weak rebound or a genuine decline.
The monthly chart just entered a death cross, so expecting an immediate reversal is premature.
* Bitcoin: Keep an eye on the trendline; consider adding longs on a breakout retest. If signs of weakness appear around 92,000-94,000, that would be an excellent shorting opportunity.
* Ethereum: Remains bearish below 3200.