2010-2026 Internet History: Becoming a Fish in an Ever-Growing Pool

01

To be a big fish in a small pond, or a small fish in a big pond?

In many people’s career development paths, when choosing industries, companies, or businesses, they often face this dilemma: should they choose a popular industry or a niche track? should they choose a large company or a small one? should they focus on the company’s main business or new ventures?

For safety or immediate gains, many people opt for the hottest industries, industry giants, and core businesses. However, choosing the current optimal solution often results in a local optimum rather than a global one.

For example, around 2005, the best university graduates would likely choose glamorous foreign companies like Procter & Gamble or Unilever, which offered high salaries and good benefits, while more second-tier talents flowed into the internet industry. But over ten years later, those who chose companies like Alibaba and Tencent received returns exceeding dozens of times compared to those who chose foreign firms.

The individuals who benefited from the era’s red dividends due to different choices each have their own understanding when looking back on their success.

It’s like some people climb stairs, while others take the elevator. When elevator users reflect on their “success” experiences, they draw various conclusions. For example, some do push-ups in the elevator, thinking they succeeded because of their effort; others lie on the floor of the elevator, reflecting on why they succeeded without doing anything.

When you seek advice from these experienced individuals hoping to learn successful methodologies, you will naturally get different answers. However, most of these are incorrect.

Only from an outsider’s perspective, with a broader view, observing the environment’s changes and patterns, can one truly approach the truth.

Internet product expert Liang Ning once proposed a “Point-Line-Plane-Body” theory: each person’s effort is a point; only on a continuously developing plane, leveraging the potential energy of the plane, can a line be drawn.

This is why we need to look at the internet industry’s development over the past decade from a macro historical perspective.

Between 2010 and 2020, the internet industry experienced rapid growth, profoundly impacting social structures and individual lives. In this grand feast, the waters and fish were both large.

For every small individual, summarizing the past is to better grasp trends, find the “plane” of rapid development, and seize future opportunities.

Returning to the initial question, the size of the pond is not the key issue. The important thing is to choose a pond with growth potential or that is expanding—becoming a fish that keeps growing in the pond. In other words, find an industry that is changing and expanding.

So how can one find such an industry?

For ordinary people, this doesn’t require deep industry knowledge. Asking oneself or those around some basic questions can help make a rough judgment. For example: Do you believe that in the future, all vehicles on the road will be new energy vehicles? Do you believe that people of all ages enjoy playing games? Do you believe young people will spend time on Bilibili?

If the answers to these questions are yes, then these industries have enormous growth potential, and companies in these fields are worth choosing.

Some might say this is risky. For example, the online education boom a few years ago was highly praised, but a policy change wiped out the entire industry. For industry practitioners, this meant facing huge sunk costs and career transition costs. But if you are unwilling to take risks and just follow the crowd in choosing a career path, how can you expect to earn returns tens of times higher than others?

To achieve returns far beyond ordinary people, you must naturally bear corresponding risks.

02

Since Ant Group’s IPO was postponed in 2021, the internet industry has experienced a series of strict regulations, including anti-monopoly actions and rectifications in online education. Policy environments have changed dramatically, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected society. So, what will be the future development trend of the internet industry?

Before answering this, let’s look at the golden decade from 2010 to 2020 from a broader and longer-term perspective.

What stage was the internet in during these ten years?

From the launch of ARPANET in 1969 to now, over half a century has passed. Its development can be divided into several phases:

First phase: 1970-1990, mainly used for academic and scientific research in the US, transmitting data via email. China was not involved at this stage.

Second phase: 1990-2010, with the advent of the World Wide Web, the internet entered commercial applications—portal sites, e-commerce platforms, search engines, and social networks emerged. China fully connected to the internet in 1994. The SARS outbreak in 2003 marked a turning point, making the internet a mass platform. The 2008 financial crisis accelerated broadband infrastructure development, and China rapidly became a major internet nation.

Third phase: 2010-2020, with the global rollout of 4G and the arrival of 5G, mobile internet became the new driving force.

Overall, the development of the internet shows certain cyclical patterns:

(1) Before the invention of the World Wide Web, internet growth was slow and limited to research applications.

(2) After the web’s invention, the first growth wave began, peaking around 2000. After the dot-com bubble burst, the industry entered a period of rectification.

(3) Post-2000, after a brief stagnation, the industry found many commercial applications, entering a second rapid growth phase. US giants like Microsoft, Google, Facebook emerged; Chinese giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent also rose.

(4) Around 2010, with the proliferation of smartphones and 4G networks, the internet shifted from PC-based to mobile, entering a third fast growth period.

(5) Since 2021, policy and market environments have changed dramatically, and the industry entered a second sideways period. Innovation slowed, Moore’s Law slowed down. So, will the next decade see the continuation of the third phase or the start of a new phase?

In general, each bottleneck the internet faces is shorter than the last, and after each, the industry accelerates faster, with the growth rate increasing.

This is partly because technological innovation has a cumulative effect: one plus one does not equal two. Each innovation point, when colliding with others, spawns new innovations—small changes lead to qualitative leaps.

Additionally, the internet has significantly accelerated information flow, far beyond any previous era, enabling faster technological breakthroughs.

Therefore, in the next ten years, whether the internet continues its third phase or enters a new stage, new development space is still expected.

03

Actually, the grand feast of the internet industry began quietly in 2007.

This brings us to a revolutionary product: the iPhone.

Although other types of smartphones existed before, none had the epoch-making user experience of the iPhone. The first-generation iPhone launched in 2007, ushering in the era of smartphones.

If cars were the epitome of industrial achievement before, today, smartphones are the strongest representation of industrial civilization.

In 2008, Apple announced the launch of the iPhone Software Development Kit (SDK), allowing third-party developers to create apps for the iPhone.

This was the beginning of the App Store and the fundamental reason for Apple’s ecosystem rise. Its ecosystem concept influenced China’s mobile internet development for over a decade.

Between 2010 and 2018, early-stage mobile ecosystem startups mainly produced utility apps—complementing native smartphone functions to improve usability.

For example: T9 input methods (initially, Apple didn’t support third-party input methods, and native 26-key input was not user-friendly), cleaning tools, flashlight apps, weather apps, etc.

During the golden decade of internet development, many star internet figures like Zhang Yiming, Wang Xing, Lei Jun, and Zhang Xiaolong were doing what before 2010? How did they catch this wave?

Zhang Yiming: In 2009, Zhang Yiming left Wang Xing’s Fanfou and joined real estate site 99Fang. This was his fourth job in four years after graduating from Nankai University at age 26. Each job lasted about a year. He was somewhat anxious compared to peers, but later founded ByteDance.

Wang Xing: His situation was worse. In July 2009, Fanfou was shut down. Unlike most entrepreneurs with direction, Wang Xing was lost. But fortune and misfortune are intertwined. By late December 2009, he pivoted to group buying and founded Meituan.

Lei Jun: In 2007, Kingsoft went public, but the results fell short of expectations. During the IPO celebration, Lei Jun cried bitterly. He left Kingsoft to seek new opportunities. Starting over was tough. In 2009, on his 40th birthday, Lei Jun confided his frustrations in a bar with friends.

Zhang Xiaolong: Born the same year as Lei Jun, and also famous before 30. Between 30 and 40, he kept experimenting. In 2010, at age 41, he saw social opportunities. Despite opposition from the executive office, he resolutely committed.

Wang Jian: Alibaba Cloud founder Wang Jian faced doubts in 2009. His KPI was always at the bottom, and only 20% of core team members remained. Looking back, founding Alibaba Cloud was the right decision. Wang Jian later became China’s first private enterprise academician. Back then, these projects were heavily doubted, and even participants were skeptical. Wang Jian endured great hardship.

Many other future star entrepreneurs were quietly waiting before 2010. The PC internet market was dominated by BAT giants, leaving little room for newcomers. Yet, they kept experimenting and seeking opportunities. After 2010, with the mobile internet wave, they became the first to seize the opportunity.

Although the mobile internet grew rapidly over these ten years, participants experienced ups and downs. Under the tide of change, a group of star internet figures emerged.

**$YALA **