#降息预期 Bitcoin's recent moves are quite interesting. The Fed's rate cut expectations are almost fully priced in. After a pullback from $80,000, it has now regained the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 200-day moving average's slope has turned positive for the first time in a month, indicating that bullish momentum has indeed returned.

However, there's a painful part—institutions are aggressively accumulating. Since December 1, the smart money holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC has increased their holdings by over 40,000 BTC, while retail investors continue to reduce their holdings. Although the Fed cut rates this time, it also hinted that only one more cut is expected next year, adding some uncertainty to risk assets.

Some analysts have bluntly stated that this is not enough to trigger a Christmas rally. The pullback after the rate cut also reflects the market's true attitude: welcome the rate cut, but not buying into the guidance. The key question remains—before macro clarity is achieved, can ETF demand continue to absorb these supplies? That will be the decisive factor moving forward. The 52-week high is still there; if it can't be broken, the upward trend will continue to be suppressed.