#通货膨胀 The Fed's recent actions are worth paying close attention to. Powell's statements are very important—he indicated that inflation risks are "tilted to the upside," which is not something said casually. Coupled with the dot plot data, the market expects only one rate cut in 2026-2027, with no rate cut expectations next year, indicating that the policy shift is already quite clear.

On-chain reactions also confirm this. Bitcoin initially surged past 94,000 after Powell's speech but immediately pulled back. Currently, the price is around 91,918. This rapid correction suggests that the market's perception of the "end of the easing cycle" is rapidly adjusting. The previously expected "soft landing + continued rate cuts" narrative is breaking down.

It is worth noting that labor market data has become a key variable. Powell emphasized that "only a significant deterioration in the employment market would lead to further rate cuts," meaning that each upcoming employment report could change market pricing. If non-farm payrolls remain resilient, the Fed will likely hold steady, which will directly suppress risk assets.

The current question is not whether to cut rates but whether inflation stickiness can return to the target. From a capital perspective, under this policy uncertainty, institutions may adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting for clearer market sentiment and data before making moves. Short-term volatility is expected to increase.