#数字资产市场动态 Gold has already surged to the $4500/ounce level, honestly hitting our previously set long-term target ahead of schedule. But if we look closely at the fundamental data, the price of gold has actually significantly exceeded the short-term valuation center calculated by the model — in other words, there might be some bubble components involved.

The problem is that the Federal Reserve's policies and the US economy haven't shown a clear shift yet, so the long-term bull market for gold may not be over. However, since the price has already diverged so much from the fundamentals, market volatility will definitely increase, and it’s too difficult to predict specific levels accurately. Instead of fixating on price targets, it’s better to focus on the key moment when the trend shifts.

We are optimistic about this rhythm: in early 2026, US inflation will continue to rise, and economic growth will marginally improve. The Federal Reserve is likely to slow down its easing pace, which may suppress gold during this period. But by the second half of 2026, on one hand, the new Federal Reserve Chair’s inauguration in May will adjust the policy pace; on the other hand, as inflation enters a downward cycle, the Fed will accelerate rate cuts — this will be the new booster for gold.

Therefore, the future trend of gold will not be a one-way rise but will follow the Federal Reserve’s moves and US economic data, presenting a wave-like progression. The same logic applies to silver. However, the silver market is smaller, with weaker liquidity, so its price swings will be more intense than gold.