After reviewing many discussions about the future trend of a certain cryptocurrency, I want to share some observations based on on-chain monitoring data.

Many people may not realize that by tracking the opening and closing records of leveraged trading addresses, it is actually possible to infer the true position distribution of major market players. I have been collecting such data over the long term—monitoring contract addresses, calculating liquidation prices, recording position increases—although it’s not a complete picture, it’s enough to reveal some clues.

The key finding is: on the surface, there seem to be many short positions, but the actual liquidity is far from sufficient. Currently, many of these short positions are small-scale, and the truly impactful large shorts were mostly closed out at around the 50 level. In contrast, the long positions have a relatively substantial size. Of course, many big players do not reveal their positions on social platforms, which makes precise quantification difficult, but a general direction can be inferred.

If the price really drops to the 30 range, based on the current large order opening prices, the chain reaction of liquidations could conservatively amount to over ten million dollars, and this is only the part I can track.

Looking ahead, liquidity withdrawal at the end of the year is a common phenomenon—exchanges need to prepare sufficient funds for the New Year, and the overall market will enter a wait-and-see period. The big volatility at the end of each year is almost unavoidable. Therefore, from the perspectives of leverage data, long-short distribution, and seasonal liquidity changes, it’s wise to be more cautious at year-end.