Ladies and gentlemen, Christmas is just around the corner, but the crypto market is surprisingly cold. Bitcoin has fallen 22.8% in the fourth quarter, and the $85,000 level was not held, resulting in a 5% loss since the beginning of the year. In contrast, gold has risen 69%, creating a stark difference.

Currently, the market voices are very mixed. Some say there will be a rebound after the holiday, while others believe the bear market will accelerate. I want to analyze this from another perspective, and the conclusion may surprise you—short-term rebounds are definitely coming, but the problem is, after the rebound, instead of a rapid decline, it will be a slow, downward "simmering" like the boiling frog.

Why will a short-term rebound inevitably occur? Two reasons. First, liquidity exhaustion. During the Christmas holiday, global market participants decrease significantly. As long as there is some capital entering the market, it can leverage the price. Looking at liquidation activity, the 90,000 to 95,000 USD range is heavily shorted, and a little buying pressure can trigger stop-losses, naturally pushing the price upward.

Second, the options market game. Major institutions currently hold a $300 million gamma risk exposure, locking the price tightly between 85,000 and 90,000 USD. When the holiday options expiration occurs, this pressure will be released, most likely resulting in an upward breakout—big players will first induce buying to lure longs before they can smoothly smash the market down.

But here is a key turning point: why is it that after the rebound, the market will experience a downward trend rather than an accelerated bear market? Many people naturally think that if demand disappears, prices will fall rapidly. Looking at the past three bear markets, they actually consist of three stages: a sharp decline (which we are in now), then a sideways decline (initiated after the rebound), and finally, bottoming out repeatedly. Although demand is shrinking now, it is far from reaching the level of "panic selling," so an accelerated downward move is unlikely.