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Trump's recent remarks have caused a stir in the market. He claims he can bring the unemployment rate down to "zero in minutes"—straightforward and candid. Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate is stuck at 4.6%, a four-year high, which he blames on the federal government having too many redundant positions. According to his logic, just by cutting those "never-employed" civil servants, the unemployment rate could drop to 1% or even near zero.
How do the data look? In November, the government indeed cut 5,000 jobs, but at the same time, the private sector added 69,000 jobs, supporting a non-farm employment increase of 64,000. Trump confidently states, "100% of new jobs come from the private sector," and bets that AI and construction will continue to drive employment growth.
However, economists are not convinced. They point out that the employment trend actually hints at an economic slowdown, with AI accelerating worker replacement leading to layoffs. This is a real issue.
Interestingly, Trump has always been friendly toward the crypto industry. The government is pushing to relax crypto regulations, planning Bitcoin strategic reserves, and even some family-related stablecoins have seen significant growth. If his employment policies are combined with the previously advocated large rate cuts, it would be a massive injection of liquidity into the market.
So, the current situation is quite contradictory: on one side, the radical promise of "zero unemployment," and on the other, the real difficulties faced by the labor market. Trump's economic policies have always deeply influenced the performance of risk assets. The question is—can such employment claims foster a looser monetary environment? Can the crypto market ride this policy wave and surge again?