2025-12-25 22:22:50

The cold moments in the crypto market are often the beginning of a major wealth shift.

December's crypto market is like a roller coaster—most people are dizzy from the ride, but I sense that familiar opportunity in the air. Having been in this space for many years, I am increasingly convinced of one rule: when everyone's opinion in the market is highly aligned, it’s actually a sign that a reversal is coming.

Currently, about 70% of market participants are betting on "breaking 90,000 by the end of the year." This one-sided bearish consensus actually presents an opportunity I haven't seen in years. It reminds me of the "Black Thursday" in March 2020—Bitcoin was halved in a day, and the whole network was shouting "cryptocurrency is doomed." But what happened next? It turned out to be the starting point of a new rally.

**Market sentiment has reached an extreme, and it's time for contrarian action**

The current crypto market is truly a tale of two extremes. On the morning of December 1st, cryptocurrencies experienced a flash crash—Bitcoin plummeted over $4,000 within two hours, briefly dropping below $86,000.

With this decline, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 23, indicating extreme fear. But my historical data shows that whenever this index falls below 25, the market has a more than 70% chance of rising over the next 1 to 3 months.

Such extreme pessimism itself is the most sensitive contrarian indicator. When even newcomers are following the crowd in being bearish, those of us who have been in the market for years should instead stay alert. The market never favors blindly following the herd; it rewards independent thinkers. This sentiment has already sent the first key signal.

**On-chain data is speaking, whales are quietly positioning**

As an analyst, I never rely on intuition. I look at the data—especially on-chain data. That’s the true reflection of the real intentions of market participants.

BTC1.07%

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OldLeekNewSickle

· 4h ago

I've heard this set of talking points quite a few times. Every time, they say there's data and patterns. But what’s the result? It's still just gambling on probabilities, no different from us small investors—just spoken more nicely.

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RunWithRugs

· 4h ago

Black Thursday was also a bottom-up buying wave for me, and now it's the same feeling... The most testing time for your mentality is often when reversing.

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LuckyHashValue

· 4h ago

Black Thursday has all been overcome, what are we afraid of this time... It's morning to get on board.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 5h ago

I was also involved in Black Thursday's wave. Right now, it does feel a bit similar, but I'm just worried it might turn out to be a false alarm again.

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DegenGambler

· 5h ago

It's the same logic again, reverse operation, reverse operation. If you keep saying that every time, shouldn't the market turn around? When retail investors are all bearish, should the big players start pushing the market up? I remember the last time someone said that, they ended up liquidating everything in a loss. The data looks good, but you need real money to actually buy in... Are you just brainwashing yourself into holding a short position? Should you buy the dip when there's extreme fear? What if a black swan appears, and the index breaks new lows again? On-chain data sounds convincing, but ultimately it depends on what the Federal Reserve thinks... I don't trust you. The coins in my hand are almost frozen, and I'm still pondering the reverse operation. Whale accumulation is a matter for big players; retail investors, what are you following... After so many years of the leek-cutting tricks, aren't you tired yet?

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