December 25, 2025

Merry Christmas. An important holiday, and for the crypto circle, this is not just the Western Spring Festival; to some extent, it is also a "robbery" in the crypto world. Because in the past, such situations often led to severe capital outflows, especially before Christmas, when a "Christmas rally" or even a sharp decline could occur. Although the timing of this Christmas decline is a bit early, I believe it can also be classified as a "Christmas market movement." The reason why declines tend to happen during Christmas is most likely due to year-end capital needs and the year-end clearing by asset management teams and funds.
Since it's Christmas, it means that after this, the market’s liquidity pressure will be much lower. Although there are still two months until the Spring Festival for us, the main pressure is actually around New Year’s Day, which is the real time for fund clearing. I recall that one of the starting points of a bull market was during the Spring Festival holiday, when most people are not watching the markets and are relaxed on vacation, allowing for accumulation and price manipulation, making it difficult for retail investors to jump in easily. Coupled with recent volatile market conditions, the probability of prices touching support levels remains very high. This is also one of the reasons I believe in the "buy and hold" strategy moving forward.
Recently, everyone should have noticed that the U price has been continuously declining. Besides the negative premium of U, the main reason is that RMB is appreciating against the US dollar. However, I haven't delved deeply into this area yet, so I won't elaborate on the logic for now. A reminder here: in the long term, holding U won't be too stressful. Inflation is inevitable, especially for us. If you are holding US dollars, are you still afraid? If it really