The recent situation in the crypto market is quite interesting——on one side, the pressure of tightening global liquidity causes market sentiment to fluctuate; on the other side, a phenomenon worth noting has emerged: Ethereum's reserves on exchanges have fallen to the lowest point in nearly eight years. Even more intriguing is that large holders are quietly entering the market at this point. What does this really reflect?

Let's first look at the essence of the data. A decline in exchange reserves indicates a transfer of chips—from the active trading circulation to long-term holders. Reviewing historical records reveals a pattern: whenever exchange reserves experience such a rapid decline, a key turning point in price usually occurs within the next 3 to 6 months. The reason is straightforward—there are fewer chips available for quick sale, so when new funds enter, the supply and demand dynamics are prone to imbalance, which is a fundamental market law.

However, it must also be acknowledged that the current environment is indeed complex. Expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan and the tightening of central bank liquidity are creating uncertainties. In the short term, market volatility may continue to rise, and even a shakeout or retracement is not surprising. After all, market sentiment is very fragile right now, and any small disturbance can easily trigger panic. But precisely because of this, the big players who are still positioning themselves amid pessimism are particularly interesting—they are demonstrating what it means to think contrarily through their actions.