Is the stablecoin supply difficult to surpass expectations? JPMorgan: The size may reach $500-600 billion by 2028

Question

【CoinDesk】JPMorgan recently released an analysis report that dealt a cold shower to the stablecoin market. According to their forecast, by 2028, the supply of stablecoins may hover between $500 billion and $600 billion, far below the industry’s most optimistic estimate of $2 trillion to $4 trillion. How big is the gap? The difference is 3 to 6 times.

What is the current situation? Since the beginning of this year, the stablecoin market has grown by approximately $100 billion, with a total scale reaching $308 billion. USDT and USDC, the two major players, have contributed the main growth. But where does this growth come from? It’s mainly not from payment scenarios, but from trading scenarios. DeFi and derivatives trading are the true driving forces behind the demand for stablecoin collateral, with new stablecoin holdings on derivatives exchanges reaching $20 billion.

What about payment applications? Currently, they are still a weakness. However, analysts believe that as more service providers begin testing cross-border transfer channels based on stablecoins, this sector may gradually heat up. But there is an interesting logic here: widespread adoption of large-scale payments does not necessarily require more stablecoin circulation— as long as the token circulation speed increases, the existing scale can support larger transaction volumes.

Another variable is the competitive landscape. Traditional banks and payment networks are vying for influence over institutional funds through tokenized deposits and blockchain solutions, while central banks’ CBDC projects are also brewing regulated alternative options. Private stablecoins will face significant challenges if they want to continue monopolizing this track.

RektCoaster · Accepted Answer

JPMorgan is starting to be bearish again. Their predictions are too conservative, it feels like they're setting traps for retail investors.

Payment scenarios are indeed underwhelming, mostly just hype.

Derivatives trading driving stablecoins is the real picture.

The true use cases are for trading hedges, payment applications, and other opportunities, but let's wait until those trends emerge.

A 3-6 times gap is a bit exaggerated; it's better to look at the actual growth rate before making judgments.

DataChief · Answer

JPMorgan's prediction is way too conservative, it sounds almost too real. But looking at the current data, stablecoins are mainly used as trading tools, and the payment scenario is indeed still quite underwhelming.

SchrodingerAirdrop · Answer

JPMorgan's prediction is indeed conservative, but to be fair, can stablecoins supported by DeFi hype and demand really work when it comes to actual payments?

MainnetDelayedAgain · Answer

JPMorgan's recent prediction, nearly half a year has passed since the last major company issued a call. According to usual practice, it could be postponed another two or three times. According to the database, the market cap in 2028 has shrunk from 4 trillion to 600 billion. This backward progress in the progress bar is worthy of a Guinness World Record.

FlashLoanPhantom · Answer

JPMorgan's prediction is really too conservative, almost cutting two-thirds? Basically, they just don't have confidence. But on second thought, stablecoins are still being used as collateral for trading derivatives, and the payment scenarios are cold and uninviting. With this development path... it's indeed a bit awkward.

SeasonedInvestor · Answer

JPMorgan's prediction is way too conservative, sticking to the old theories and not understanding what DeFi is really doing. By the way, the payment scene will explode sooner or later; it's just a matter of time.