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The current global financial market situation is characterized by short-term trading expectations of rate cuts and easing, accompanied by a slowdown in inflation pressures.
The 1-year short-term bond yield is declining, reflecting expectations of rate cuts, consistent with the impact of tonight's inflation data.
Meanwhile, the 10-year and 30-year long-term bond yields are also falling, indicating a dual effect of expectations of rate cuts and easing inflation pressures.
However, the US dollar index has weakened, and gold has not strengthened, clearly showing that the market's expectations of rate cuts are not enough to fully influence the financial markets, currently only affecting the bond market.
Of course, for risk markets, there is also short-term momentum. US stock indices are rising, continuing the pre-market gains at open, with the VIX index falling back to around 16.18, indicating short-term market sentiment is stable.
The SPHB/SPHQ indices have risen to 1.56, showing that high-beta US stocks are in demand in the short term, and market risk appetite is good.
It is important to be cautious: although the bond market is reacting to expectations of rate cuts and easing inflation pressures, these expectations have not affected the dollar and gold, implying that the influence of this trading expectation is relatively weak and may not last long.
Secondly, tomorrow's Yen rate hike + US stock quadruple witching day. Currently, US stocks are rising, but caution is needed. This week, US stocks have repeatedly shown a pattern of rising pre-market, falling during the day, falling pre-market, and rebounding during the day. The first half of the session has performed well, but vigilance is still necessary!#BTC #ETH