### **Ethereum (ETH) on August 2, 2025

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#### **Current Market Overview**
- **Price**: ETH has broken below the key support of 3500 USD, currently reported at 3494.57 USD, with a 24-hour drop of 3.36%, and a low of 3431 USD.
- **Sentiment**: Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 65 (previous value 72), continuous outflow of institutional funds (Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $114.8 million in a single day).

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#### **Core Drivers of Decline**
1. **Macroeconomic Pressure**
- The new U.S. tariff policy has triggered risk aversion, leading to a withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets.
- Core PCE inflation in July was 2.6% (annualized), CPI at 2.7%, the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with only one expected rate cut this year (25 basis points).
- In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs (expected 200,000), with the previous two months revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

2. **Market Internal**
- On August 1, $5.72 billion in BTC options and $1.35 billion in ETH options are set to expire on the Deribit platform, causing volatility to soar.
- In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations of $950 million, with ETH long positions accounting for over 85%.
- BitMEX co-founder sold 2,373 ETH (approximately 8.3 million USD).

3. **Technical Analysis**
- ETH hourly chart shows a "death cross", with a net outflow of $113 million on-chain funds on August 1.

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#### **Technical Indicators and On-chain Signals**
| **Dimension** | **Status** | **Meaning** |
|----------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------|
| Oversold Signal | RSI 22 | Short-term rebound probability increases |
| Support Level | 3500 USD Breaks | If it breaks, may test 3400-3350 USD |
| Capital Flow | Net outflow of $113 million from exchanges | Selling pressure continues, some funds transferred to cold wallets |
| Derivatives Sentiment | Futures Funding Rate Turns Negative | Bearish Dominance, Extreme Sentiment May Trigger a Rebound |

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#### **Market Outlook**
- **Short-term (Today to Weekend)**:
- In the evening, the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.5) if below expectations, ETH may test $3400; if above expectations, it may rebound to $3600-3650.
- Oversold correction + some institutions buying on dips, if it stabilizes above $3500, the probability of a rebound is high.

- **Medium term (within August)**:
- Key events: CPI on August 12, Jackson Hole meeting from August 21-23. If inflation falls or policy is dovish, it may return to $3800-$4000.
- Risk: If the US-China tariff truce expires on August 12 and is not extended, it may trigger a safe-haven sell-off.

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#### **Operation Strategy**
- **Aggressive**: Signs of a bottoming out appear at $3450-$3480 (e.g., long lower wick), taking a light position for a rebound, target $3580-$3600, stop loss below $3400.
- **Conservative**: Wait for ETH to reclaim $3550 (hourly chart resistance) or operate accordingly after the PMI data.
- **Conservative**: Wait and see until ETH breaks through $3650 (daily resistance) or stabilizes above $3500 for more than 24 hours before making a move.

> **Key Points**: The current decline is event-driven, and the long-term fundamentals have not reversed. It is recommended to reduce leverage before the PMI release tonight to prevent flash crash risks.