On June 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 66.2% today. It can basically be seen that a rate cut in June is likely. This is because the April monthly line needs to either exceed or remain parallel to the highest point of 95,000 in March to reverse the trend, allowing the 76,560 point to become the lowest point in a V-shape, leading to a right-sided market. Currently, the probability of this happening seems very low, so there must be a lowest point in April or May, and then the rate cut in June should close above the lowest point of April or May, marking the beginning of a reversal in the third quarter. This is the most ideal trend and also the only hope for bullish traders this year.