0318 Bitcoin Daily Report #美联储利率决议

Before the interest rate decision is announced, Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily paused. Overnight yesterday, the short-term price briefly broke through $75,000, then retreated below $74,000 at close, ending the previous streak of 8 consecutive days of gains.

The current market focus remains on liquidity tightness issues. For example, considering multiple central banks adopting tightening or more hawkish rhetoric, when government bond yields rise, bond markets often capture market share including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upside momentum may be lost. Currently, if consistent with market expectations that benchmark rates remain unchanged, traders may focus more on policy tone, dot plot, or rhetoric tone, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Possible scenarios for Bitcoin: 1. Dot plot signals two rate cuts, Bitcoin may rise at least 3%, then price may stabilize above $75,000. 2. Rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking behavior, causing prices to retrace and retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. Hawkish rhetoric is severe and simultaneously shows concern about oil price increases impacting inflation, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin may retreat toward the $65,000 region.

Technical Outlook: Multiple indicators show bullish momentum is weakening, the market is entering a brief neutral phase with short-term consolidation or directional hesitation. Key Levels: 78,800 key structural resistance, breakthrough of this level may trigger structural change and establish a stronger bullish pattern for coming weeks. $70,200 psychological level, as this price coincides with the 50-period moving average. If price fails to move away from this level, most of the market may again fall into hesitant consolidation phase, limiting continuation of the uptrend.