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GateUser-a5fa8bd0 · 2026-01-12T14:39:56+00:00

Peserta pasar meragukan pemulihan dolar meskipun pertumbuhan PDB yang kuat, karena indeks dolar AS mencapai level terendah dalam 11 minggu. Perubahan kebijakan di Jepang dan ketidaksesuaian antara data dan sentimen menambah ketidakpastian mata uang, mengungkapkan tantangan di depan.

GateUser-a5fa8bd0

2026-01-12 14:39:56

Pembuatan abstrak sedang berlangsung

Peserta pasar semakin waspada terhadap trajektori dolar AS saat indeks dolar AS diperdagangkan mendekati titik terendahnya dalam sebelas minggu. Meskipun angka pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal ketiga melampaui perkiraan konsensus pada hari Selasa, mata uang ini kesulitan mempertahankan momentum, mengungkapkan ketidaksesuaian penting antara data utama dan sentimen trader.

Rally singkat yang dipicu oleh angka PDB yang kuat dengan cepat memudar saat perhatian beralih ke langkah kebijakan yang diharapkan di Jepang. Menteri Keuangan Katayama Kazuki menandakan kesiapan dari Tokyo untuk melawan fluktuasi yen yang tajam melalui intervensi potensial, sebuah pernyataan yang langsung membebani kekuatan dolar. Investor tampaknya memandang valuasi mata uang melalui lensa yang berbeda dari indikator ekonomi tradisional.

Analis Danni Hewson dari AJ Bell menyoroti tantangan mendasar yang dihadapi peserta pasar menjelang tahun baru: kekuatan prediktif terbatas dari statistik ekonomi yang bersifat mundur. “Data ini memberi tahu kita di mana kita telah berada, bukan ke mana kita akan pergi,” kata Hewson, menekankan bahwa data pertumbuhan historis yang kuat hanyalah pendukung singkat untuk posisi dolar di tengah ketidakpastian yang lebih luas.

Kekuatan yang bersaing—fundamental ekonomi yang solid versus ketakutan intervensi dan volatilitas yang berorientasi ke depan—menunjukkan mengapa bahkan pertumbuhan yang lebih baik dari perkiraan tidak dapat mempertahankan pemulihan yang meyakinkan dalam indeks mata uang. Peserta pasar bergulat dengan ketidakpastian yang lebih besar daripada kejelasan saat mereka menavigasi jalan ke depan, dengan titik terendah sebelas minggu mencerminkan hilangnya kepercayaan yang lebih luas terhadap kekuatan dolar dalam jangka pendek.

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