Lembaga Optimis 2026: Mengapa Ethereum Bisa Mengungguli Pasar?

【区块律动】Large financial institutions’ opinions often reflect certain market trends. Recently, news has emerged that the digital asset research team of a well-known international bank has published its latest outlook on Ethereum’s prospects, with its global head explicitly stating in the latest report: 2026 will be a year for Ethereum, similar to the market landscape of 2021.

The analyst emphasized that, despite the overall crypto market facing pressure and the bank lowering its recent price forecasts, Ethereum is expected to perform better relative to other cryptocurrencies. He believes the key driving force comes from the accelerated growth in blockchain technology and on-chain product adoption.

Interestingly, the report pointed out a phenomenon: Bitcoin’s dominant position in the market remains strong, but its performance has not met expectations, which weakens the overall digital asset sector’s upward momentum against the US dollar. However, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s attractiveness is increasing. Institutions expect the ETH/BTC exchange rate to gradually return to the high of about 0.08 in 2021, based on the logic that Ethereum possesses structural advantages that are difficult for other cryptocurrencies to replicate.

What are these advantages? The absolute leading position of the stablecoin ecosystem, the scale accumulation of real-world assets(RWA), and deep deployment in the DeFi sector. Additionally, ongoing network expansion is also a reflection of long-term competitiveness. Especially, the upgrade plan to increase Layer 1 throughput is seen as critical, as historical data shows that higher throughput often correlates with higher network market value. The Fusaka upgrade in December last year was an important step in this direction.

From a policy perspective, the US “Clarity Act” is expected to advance in the first quarter, which will improve the regulatory environment for digital assets. Coupled with the resilient performance of the US stock market, institutions believe that such policy favorable factors could push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of the year, and as the most active blockchain platform in the ecosystem, Ethereum is bound to benefit.

It is worth noting that the institution’s attitude towards Ethereum and Bitcoin has diverged. Although the short-term price target for Ethereum has been lowered, the long-term outlook is actually more optimistic. Specifically, the forecast at the end of 2026 has been adjusted to $7,500 (previously $12,000), with a target of $15,000 in 2027 and $22,000 in 2028. However, the long-term expectations have been raised—by the end of 2029, it is expected to reach $30,000, and an additional target of $40,000 by the end of 2030. This adjustment reflects the institution’s confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects, despite more conservative short-term predictions.