Lisensi bank nasional hampir disetujui, titik balik XRP dari aset perdagangan menuju infrastruktur keuangan telah tiba

Ripple’s application for a national bank charter regulatory process is nearing completion. According to the latest news, the application began in July 2025 and received conditional approval in December 2025. Once officially operational, Ripple National Trust Bank will become a member institution of the Federal Reserve System, which means both the identity and application scenarios of XRP will undergo structural changes. Based on this prediction by market analysts, XRP’s reasonable price range by early 2027 could be between $10 and $15.

Practical Significance of the National Bank Charter

From regulatory recognition to identity upgrade

Ripple chose to apply for a federal-level national bank charter rather than a state-level one. This choice is critical. A federal charter means its business will be directly subject to federal regulation, can operate uniformly across the United States without dealing with state-by-state compliance variations.

The proposed institution will be named Ripple National Trust Bank, positioned as a trust bank with core business focused on asset custody, trust services, and asset protection. More importantly, the bank will be listed as a member institution of the Federal Reserve System. This status will enable Ripple to directly access the U.S. financial system and utilize Federal Reserve infrastructure, providing higher-level compliance backing for serving institutional clients and managing RLUSD stablecoin reserves.

Barriers to institutional adoption are being lowered

From an institutional investor perspective, a national bank charter constitutes strong regulatory recognition that helps lower compliance barriers for institutional use of XRP. Previously, many institutions took a conservative stance toward crypto assets mainly due to unclear regulatory status. Now that Ripple is a licensed financial institution, this significantly reduces legal risks for institutional participation.

Based on the latest market data, this trend is already becoming apparent. XRP’s current price stands at $2.28, with a 7-day gain of 21.86%, and exchange balances have fallen to 8-year lows, which typically indicates holders are transferring tokens to cold wallets for long-term holding. Meanwhile, U.S. XRP spot ETFs are recording sustained net inflows, with institutional capital providing momentum to this rally.

Logic Supporting Price Targets

Fixed supply, growing demand fundamentals

Google AI conducted an assessment of potential impacts from Ripple’s national bank full operations over one year. The core logic is: if Ripple can leverage the banking system to drive actual use of XRP in cross-border settlement and liquidity management, demand could experience sustained growth against a fixed supply backdrop.

XRP’s total supply is 10 billion coins with current circulating supply of approximately 6.068 billion coins. With relatively fixed supply, if institutional adoption rates continue to rise, demand will provide strong support for XRP.

Reasonableness of the 2027 $10 target

Based on assumptions of steadily rising institutional adoption rates, models from Google AI predict that by early 2027, XRP’s reasonable price range could be between $10 and $15. If it reaches $10, XRP’s market cap would approach $600 billion.

Is this target reasonable? From Ripple’s strategic positioning, there is some support. In November 2025, Ripple completed a $500 million funding round at a company valuation of approximately $40 billion. Over the past two years, Ripple has also acquired 7 companies with total M&A spending near $4 billion, spanning multiple areas including prime brokerage, stablecoin payment platforms, treasury management systems, digital asset wallets, and custody. This demonstrates Ripple is building a comprehensive financial services ecosystem.

But limitations must also be considered

The analysis also notes that higher valuations would require XRP to occupy a larger share in global banking liquidity systems, a process that may take considerably longer. In other words, the $10 target is relatively conservative, while $15 would require more institutional adoption and validation of actual applications.

Transformation of Asset Identity

From trading asset to financial infrastructure

The establishment of Ripple National Trust Bank may drive XRP’s transformation from a “trading asset” to a “financial infrastructure asset.” This is not merely a change in identity, but a structural shift in price logic.

Price of trading assets is primarily influenced by market sentiment and short-term liquidity. Price of financial infrastructure assets, however, is linked to factors such as usage frequency and settlement scale within the actual financial system. Once XRP becomes a standard settlement tool within the banking system, its value is no longer speculative but based on actual financial flows.

Current market response

From Ripple’s funding progress and market performance, institutions have already begun pricing in this transition. Ripple’s President Monica Long recently reiterated that the company has no current IPO plans and will continue private operations. This indicates Ripple is confident in its development direction, not rushing to finance through public offerings but instead building its ecosystem through strategic financing and M&A.

Summary

The approval of Ripple’s national bank charter represents an important milestone in the crypto industry. This is not merely regulatory recognition, but the opening of doors to institutional adoption. Based on assumptions of rising institutional adoption rates, XRP’s target of reaching $10 by 2027 has a certain degree of reasonableness, but it must be recognized as a prediction under assumed conditions, with actual outcomes depending on whether Ripple can truly drive XRP’s application expansion through the banking system. The transformation from trading asset to financial infrastructure is the key to XRP’s long-term value.