Ethereum supply increases by 81,800 ETH! Market pressure intensifies—Can the $1,881 support hold?

Quick core conclusion: Ethereum has net increased by approximately 81,800 ETH over the past 30 days, with an annualized inflation rate of about 0.82%. In the short term, this constitutes mild inflation, exerting indirect pressure on the $1881 support level, but not posing an immediate breach risk. The current price is around $2015, with support levels at 1950-1910, strong support at 1881, and resistance initially at 2050-2060.

📊 Key Data and Analysis

- Supply scope: The data covers a net increase of 81,790.88 ETH over the past 30 days, totaling approximately 12.157 million ETH, with an annualized inflation rate of about 0.82%.
- Cause breakdown: Staking rewards issuance (PoS) exceeds EIP-1559 burns, resulting in net inflation, but at a moderate growth rate.
- On-chain status: Exchange balances are near a ten-year low, staking rates are at an all-time high, and liquidity is relatively tight.

🛡️ Support levels and operational ideas

- Short-term pattern: Price is trapped between the psychological threshold of $2000 and the $2050 range; 1881 is a strong support zone.
- Scenario analysis:
- Hold at 1881: Slight correction with a rebound targeting 2050-2060;
- Break below 1881 with volume: target 1850-1820, strict risk control needed.
- Operational suggestions:
- Long positions: Rebound to 1910-1930 for stabilization, lightly add positions, stop-loss below 1880;
- Short positions: Encounter resistance at 2050-2060 during rebound, lightly short, stop-loss above 2075.

⚠️ Risk warning

- Regulatory developments, ETF capital flows, and large whale transfers may amplify volatility;
- Supply influence is a medium-term marginal variable; in the short term, focus more on technical and capital resonance.

One sentence summary: Mild inflation from supply does not change the short-term consolidation pattern; $1881 is the key defensive line. Holding it could lead to range correction, but a breach requires cautious risk management. #震荡行情交易策略