WSJ : La probabilité d'un cessez-le-feu réussi entre les États-Unis et l'Iran reste faible, le plan en 15 points a été rejeté, et l'Iran refuse de renoncer à ses armes nucléaires et à ses missiles

« The Wall Street Journal » citing intermediaries involved in negotiations stated that Iran has never proactively requested a pause in attacks on its energy facilities, contrasting sharply with Trump’s public claim that the suspension was “at Iran’s request.” Whether a ceasefire can be achieved remains a short-term risk for assets.
（Background: Trump: Iran’s naval and air forces have been completely destroyed, “losing mine-laying capabilities”; the impact of the conflict on stocks and oil prices has been less severe than expected）
（Additional context: JPMorgan Chase: Gold liquidity has fallen below Bitcoin, with BTC stabilizing counter to geopolitical crises）

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• 15-Point Plan Rejected: Iran Refuses Nuclear Weapons and Missiles
• Oil Tankers via Hormuz: Trump Calls It a “Gift”
• Ceasefire Progress Influences BTC

The announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East and the ongoing reality continue to perplex the global community: Trump recently claimed that, based on Iran’s proactive request, the U.S. decided to suspend attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days to facilitate bilateral peace negotiations.

However, the Wall Street Journal citing multiple intermediaries involved in the negotiations indicated that Iran has never made such a request and has not yet responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire plan, complicating external assessments of the negotiation outlook.

Sources reveal that Iranian officials have expressed willingness to participate in talks, but the final decision still awaits approval from the highest leadership. Currently, there is no indication that Tehran is actively seeking a ceasefire window.

15-Point Plan Rejected: Iran Refuses Nuclear Weapons and Missiles

The U.S. proposed a 15-point plan centered on lifting severe economic sanctions in exchange for Iran making concessions in several contentious areas, including its nuclear program, missile development, and support for regional armed groups.

Iran’s response has been firm. Intermediaries say Tehran has demanded that the U.S. reduce what they see as “excessive” conditions in the plan; otherwise, they will not agree to formal negotiations. Specifically, Iran refuses to include missile programs as a starting point for talks and is unwilling to commit to a permanent halt to uranium enrichment.

Negotiators openly state that, given both sides’ conditions are difficult for the other to accept, the likelihood of a successful ceasefire remains low.

Oil Tankers via Hormuz: Trump Calls It a “Gift”

Amid ongoing military and diplomatic tensions, Iran recently allowed several oil tankers flying Pakistani flags to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump interpreted this move as a “gift” from Iran’s leadership, suggesting it indicates Tehran’s willingness to advance negotiations.

However, from the perspective of intermediaries, this symbolic gesture has not translated into substantive breakthroughs, and the deadlock over core conditions persists.

Ceasefire Progress Influences BTC

For the crypto market, every development in U.S.-Iran tensions impacts risk asset sentiment. News of Iran’s willingness to negotiate temporarily boosted Bitcoin by over 5%, pushing it above $71,000. Conversely, if negotiations falter, oil prices may decline and risk assets could face selling pressure.

This situation also tests whether Bitcoin truly functions as a safe haven asset.

Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned that if Middle Eastern conflicts persist, U.S. inflation could surge to 4.2%, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts.