MarketWhisper

A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.

Circle Internet Group（CRCL）stock price fell 9.9%, and Compass Point cut its rating to “Sell,” with a target price of $77, reflecting regulatory risk and the impact of market sentiment. At the same time, a hacking incident involving Drift Protocol triggered a collective lawsuit investigation, indirectly affecting CRCL’s stock price. Market awareness of DeFi risks has increased, and with stablecoin legislation stalled, Circle faces greater structural pressure.

Covenant AI announced on April 10 that it was withdrawing from the Bittensor network, accusing key figure Jacob Steeves of betraying the promise of decentralization and citing multiple suppression actions. Covenant AI emphasized that the apparent decentralized governance of Bittensor is actually controlled by a single person, creating a “decentralization theater.” The team’s decentralized LLM pretraining project, Covenant-72B, has significant influence in the industry; this withdrawal is seen as a proactive choice rather than a failure.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies completes its uplisting from the U.S. board of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to the NYSE, keeping its stock ticker unchanged, and announces that it will expand its share repurchase plan to $4 billion. The uplisting shows that it meets the rigorous standards of the NYSE main board and can attract more institutional investors. The share repurchase plan reflects the company’s commitment to its shareholders and is intended to boost its stock price.

An independent Bitcoin miner using 70 TH/s successfully mined the 944,306th block in April, earning a reward of about $222,012. Although the success rate is extremely low, this event demonstrates the decentralized spirit of the Bitcoin network—any miner has a chance to mine a block. However, according to statistics, last year solo miners mined only 22 blocks, showing the real-world challenges and hardships involved.

Lightning Labs’ Chief Technology Officer, Olaoluwa Osuntokun, proposed a quantum-resistant wallet prototype that addresses a signature scheme vulnerability in the Bitcoin Quantum Defense Initiative. The prototype uses zero-knowledge proofs to let users prove wallet ownership without having to disclose their seed, preventing funds from being locked due to an “emergency brake.” Although the prototype works as intended, there is still a way to go before any formal deployment, and the community has differing views on the assessment of quantum threats.

AlphaTON Capital announced plans to raise $43.0 million through a transaction with Vertical Data Inc. to support its AI infrastructure operations, with a focus on deploying NVIDIA B300 GPUs to enhance the computing power of the Cocoon AI platform. This move is part of the company’s transition from biotechnology to encrypted AI infrastructure, aiming to achieve data privacy protection and deep integration of AI with digital assets.

CryptoQuant research indicates that after the ceasefire agreement, the price rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum was driven by new longs establishing positions, not by short liquidations. The open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual futures increased by $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Renewed institutional buying in the U.S. brought the Coinbase premium back into positive territory. Bitcoin broke above $69,400, targeting $79,000.

Pi Network released version 21 on April 9. The key update is that the testnet RPC has officially gone live, providing developers with a secure environment to test smart contracts and DApps. Next, smart contracts are expected to be deployed within two months, enabling Pi幣 to transition from a community token into a functional digital asset and to support DeFi applications and automated workflows, while also advancing the KYC migration to ensure compliance.

Last week, Bitcoin whales sold about $271 million, setting the largest single-day activity since January. The market reacted well to this selloff: long-term holders significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings, indicating the market’s absorption capacity has strengthened. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could remain in the $70,000 to $72,000 range. Compared with the market conditions during the January selloff, this time has been more stable. Long-term holders’ net positions turned positive, and technical indicators suggest the market is approaching a bottom, with clear signs of a future recovery.

Bitcoin surged in the short term to $71,830 before pulling back. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent advancing the “CLARITY Act” faces challenges that could affect stablecoin legislation. WLFI borrowed $75 million in stablecoins, raising liquidation risk. U.S. stocks rose on expectations of peace talks, and market sentiment is optimistic, but liquidity in capital flows still needs improvement.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury expands its Cybersecurity Threat Identification Program, providing free threat intelligence services for blockchain companies to address the cybersecurity challenges facing the digital asset industry. A series of recent attack incidents, especially cases involving North Korean infiltration, have highlighted the risks to the crypto industry, prompting the government to incorporate it into its financial infrastructure protection framework to improve security defenses.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Bitcoin’s official rise today reached $71,800, mainly because Israel and Lebanon have begun direct negotiations, reducing market concerns about an Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, a weaker US dollar and continued buying by institutional investors also pushed prices higher. On the technical side, Bitcoin’s key support levels are $68,500 to $70,000. A break above $76,000 to $78,000 could prompt another test of $80,000 to $85,000.

Cango sold 2,000 bitcoins in March to repay a collateralized loan, reducing its holdings to 1,025.69 BTC, with debt of $30.6 million. This move is part of a comprehensive financial restructuring and strengthens the balance sheet through a $65 million equity investment and a $10 million convertible bond. Multiple miners in the industry are facing liquidation pressure, and are re-evaluating their strategies due to competition for AI resources, with expectations that by the end of 2026 AI revenue will account for 70% of miners’ revenue.

Brag House Holdings announces its merger with House of Doge Inc., approved by shareholders with more than 98% of the vote. After the merger, it will focus on digital infrastructure for sports finance, enabling crypto payments, asset tokenization, and the creation of an interactive digital platform through Dogecoin—signaling the arrival of Dogecoin’s institutional era.

TKResearch Trading points out that the token circulating supply of “Binance Life” has an abnormal structure; among the 1 billion coins claimed by the official, the actually tradable amount is only about 184 million coins. The analysis also reveals that the behavior of large holders is concentrated, which could affect market liquidity. Large-holder concentration implies significant market risk, but at the same time it may reduce selling pressure. The analysis is based on on-chain data and has not yet received official confirmation.

According to data from crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov, on Polymarket only 0.015% of traders are able to generate monthly income exceeding $5,000 for four consecutive months. Most traders stop trading after turning a profit in the short term; the number of people who are truly consistently profitable is extremely small. Among 840 cumulative wallets with over $100k in profit, the proportion of retail traders is unknown, and most successful cases are the result of institutional trading, indicating that it is extremely difficult to profit from prediction markets.

The decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid’s liquidity vault HLP suffered an estimated loss of about $1.5 million. The attacker used the low-liquidity token FARTCOIN to carry out a “suicide liquidation” attack, systematically triggering the ADL mechanism and forcing HLP to absorb the losses. On the surface, the vault’s books show a loss of $3 million. This incident reveals weaknesses in the ADL mechanism in low-liquidity markets; the attacker could also be profiting by hedging at the same time, indicating that the operation looks more like arbitrage than sabotage.