Adam Back: Institutional Investment in Bitcoin Slower Than Expected, Accumulation May Take 12 to 18 Months

On April 29, some observers viewed Morgan Stanley’s recent entry into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF as a catalyst to end the current crypto bear market, citing the large distribution capability of the Wall Street giant’s $80 trillion wealth advisory network. However, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and an early contributor to the Bitcoin community, stated that “it won’t happen that quickly.” Back was recently speculated by The New York Times to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of Bitcoin, which he denied. He indicated that from a positive market signal perspective, Bitcoin ETFs might be the most significant development recently, even more so than a pro-crypto U.S. government, but the process is slower than most people realize. Back stated, “I think one thing people may be miscalculating is that institutional adoption is very slow. So while ETFs have been bought, fund managers have not yet allocated 2% to 4% in their general stock portfolios as suggested by BlackRock. They will do it, but slower than people expect.” He mentioned that investors will not rush in overnight, and the accumulation process could take a year or even 18 months. Regarding price, Back noted that the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle must be considered. He pointed out that even if some commentators believe the four-year cycle is breaking down, “people expect it to happen, so they sell to make it actually happen,” and a decline could still occur. This logic will only change when people see the market strengthening, which is currently manifesting in the form of institutional capital inflows. Back also commented on recent discussions about the rapid development of quantum computing hardware potentially threatening Bitcoin’s cryptography, stating that institutions are more systematic in risk management and will focus on tail risks, while retail investors view it as a distant future risk.