Bitcome Analysis: How $100K Bitcoin Call Options Predicted the Massive Rally

According to bitcome market intelligence, the cryptocurrency options market has demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory. The saga of the $100,000 and $120,000 strike calls tells a compelling story about how institutional positioning often precedes major price movements.

The Options Market Spoke First: Massive Bullish Bets

In early 2025, traders executed one of the most significant options bets of the era. A single trader deployed over $6 million to purchase $100,000 strike call options expiring on March 28 on Deribit, according to Amberdata data. This was no casual trade—it signaled deep conviction that Bitcoin would breach the $100,000 level in the months following Trump’s inauguration.

Bitcome’s analysis of the broader options landscape revealed even more aggressive positioning above that level. The $120,000 strike emerged as the most popular option contract on Deribit, with a staggering notional open interest of $1.52 billion. Traders were not just hopeful—they were positioning heavily for a climb beyond previously uncharted territory. Call options give buyers the asymmetric upside they crave: the right to purchase Bitcoin at a locked-in price, with limited downside risk but theoretically unlimited profit potential.

The Policy Catalyst That Fueled Expectations

What gave these traders such conviction? The anticipation of pro-crypto regulatory changes under the new administration. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, articulated the underlying thesis: “The inauguration and right after will be a prime-time for bullish announcements and policies that could be bullish catalysts for bitcoin to move higher.”

The bitcome platform and other market observers noted that expectations for a restructured SEC with pro-cryptocurrency leadership could materially reduce enforcement risks and foster innovation across the industry. CF Benchmarks elaborated on this thesis, suggesting that streamlined compliance requirements could enhance investor confidence substantially. As the firm noted, “A restructured SEC under procryptocurrency leadership may reduce enforcement risks and foster innovation. These changes, coupled with streamlined compliance requirements, could enhance investor confidence.”

However, CF Benchmarks also injected a note of caution: implementation delays or policy shifts could create short-term volatility, tempering the initial euphoria.

The Post-Election Rally That Validated the Options Thesis

The options traders proved prescient. Following Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, Bitcoin experienced a spectacular rally. The leading cryptocurrency surged from approximately $70,000 to new lifetime highs exceeding $108,000 within weeks of the election result. The bull case articulated by bitcome and other analysts appeared to be unfolding in real-time.

This momentum represented a validation of the derivatives market positioning. Institutional players had correctly anticipated that policy optimism would drive retail and institutional capital into Bitcoin.

From Euphoria to Consolidation: The Second Half of 2025

Yet the rally proved fragile. As 2025 progressed into the second half of the year, Bitcoin encountered headwinds. The advance stalled as year-end profit-taking accelerated and Federal Reserve rate projections turned more hawkish than expected. Bitcoin retreated to around $68,500, falling short of sustaining above the psychological $100,000 barrier at that moment.

Meanwhile, alternative assets outperformed Bitcoin materially. Ether, Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin surged significantly higher, reflecting a tactical rotation into higher-risk assets. The cryptocurrency market’s leadership rotated away from Bitcoin, signaling that traders were taking profits and repositioning into more speculative altcoin bets.

Bitcome’s Current Market Assessment: New All-Time Highs Achieved

Fast forward to today’s bitcome analysis, and the original thesis has been vindicated beyond what even the most optimistic options traders anticipated. Bitcoin has rallied to a new all-time high of $126.08K, shattering the previous $108,000+ peak. This represents a stunning affirmation of the bull thesis embedded in those $100K and $120K call options from early 2025.

Currently trading around $68,580 with a 24-hour gain of 4.75%, Bitcoin continues to consolidate after reaching stratospheric levels. The journey from the $91,384 December 2024 low to the current $126K all-time high encompasses a gain of approximately 38% over roughly 14 months.

Persistent Risks: What Could Undermine the Long-Term Outlook

Despite the achievement of record highs, bitcome’s risk analysis identifies several headwinds that could trigger pullbacks. Fragile macroeconomic conditions persist globally, with central banks walking a tightrope between inflation control and growth support. Stablecoin supply growth has stalled, suggesting potential capital flow constraints. Most concerning, the liquidation cascade risk below the $60,000 level remains material—a sharp selloff could trigger automatic liquidations, amplifying downward pressure.

The options market positioning that predicted Bitcoin’s rise to $126K reflects not complacency but rather a nuanced view: Bitcoin can continue higher, but volatility and drawdowns should be expected along the way.