Goldman Sachs warnt: Es besteht eine "extreme Gegenreaktion" bei den US-Aktien, Hedging-Short-Positionen lösen eine Short-Covering-Rally aus

Goldman Sachs Trading Department recently pointed out that the current hedge fund position structure is forming a special situation: investors are maintaining long positions in individual stocks on one hand, while establishing large short positions through ETFs and index futures for hedging on the other. This strategy is laying the groundwork for potential and strong short-covering momentum in the market. Once positive news emerges, the stock market could experience a rapid and intense rebound.

(Middle East conflict drives up oil prices, Bitcoin remains above 70,000)

Goldman Sachs: Institutional hedging short positions reach a three-year high

According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage data shows that hedge funds still maintain relatively optimistic long positions in US stocks, but at the same time, they are building large short positions through ETFs and index futures to hedge overall market risk. The scale of these macro hedging shorts has risen to the highest level since September 2022.

The proportion of hedge funds shorting the market via index and ETF has approached the high point around September 2022

This reflects that investors are actively responding to concerns such as the ongoing Middle East conflict, rising corporate credit risk, and surging AI expenditures, rather than solely being bearish on US stocks.

Positive news could trigger a sharp rise in indices

John Flood, Head of US Equity Execution Services at Goldman Sachs, stated that the current market position structure indicates that “Right Tail Risk” exceeds Left Tail Risk, meaning the probability of a significant upward move may be higher than the risk of decline.

He said: “If major positive news emerges, such as de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the market could quickly see short covering, driving a sharp rise in indices in a short period.”

Flood gave an example: in extreme cases, US stock indices could even experience a 2% to 3% straight-line surge, mainly driven by the short covering of macro hedging positions:

Investors experienced this scenario briefly on Monday morning, when the S&P 500 initially fell 1.5% in the early trading session, but after President Trump stated that the war with Iran would be “resolved soon,” it closed up 0.8%.

High leverage and low liquidity will amplify market volatility

Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the total gross exposure of hedge funds has reached 307%, a new record high, indicating that funds are holding large long and short positions simultaneously. The market leverage is high, and market liquidity has also noticeably decreased.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the trading depth at the best bid and ask prices for S&P 500 futures is only about $4 million, far below the historical average of approximately $14 million. Insufficient liquidity means that large institutional trades are more likely to drive price fluctuations, potentially causing more intense market swings in the coming weeks.

Market watch: waiting for geopolitical and economic signals to stabilize

Although there is potential for a rebound, Goldman Sachs points out that many long-term funds, such as traditional asset management firms and sovereign wealth funds, remain cautious. Additionally, retail investors continue to be a significant source of recent stock market buying, but if employment data continues to worsen, retail demand could weaken.

Currently, the market is in a highly uncertain phase. If signs of easing in geopolitical conflicts appear in the short term, short covering could quickly boost the stock market; conversely, if uncertainty persists, US stocks may face new volatility and pressure.

This article Goldman Sachs warns: US stocks have “extreme rebound” momentum, with short covering triggering a rally, first published on Chain News ABMedia.