The altcoin season is lively while Bitcoin stalls as we enter 2026.

Altcoin season is the period when cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin experience strong growth, delivering exceptional profits. However, many traders still believe it is too early to discuss this, while others see early signs even though prices have not yet experienced significant volatility. The market sentiment at this moment is quite neutral, neither overly pessimistic nor truly excited, like waiting for a race to start.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating around the $88,000 mark. Notably, many altcoins have stopped setting new lows, creating a divergence from the usual pattern. While it cannot yet be confirmed that a strong rally is imminent, this development is attracting investor attention, especially as 2026 is just hours away.

Bitcoin stalls – an opportunity for Altcoin to rise

Altcoins do not necessarily have to wait for Bitcoin to plummet to break out. Sometimes, just a “cooling down” of Bitcoin can allow the altcoin market to flourish. This has happened before in 2017 and 2020, when Bitcoin moved sideways while strong altcoins quietly grew step by step.

The Altcoin Season Index shows many cryptocurrencies performing better than Bitcoin, even during days when the market is in the red. This scenario has appeared before in 2019 and 2022, just before the market enters a new bullish cycle. Usually, this process begins quietly, not with bright green candles, but with persistent strength during tough times.

Interestingly, the upcoming altcoin season may no longer depend entirely on Ethereum—the “original” altcoin. Smaller altcoins can grow independently, as clearly shown on the dominance chart.

Changes in BTC dominance (in May) | Source: Coinglass Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased from 64.3% in May to the current 59%, while Ethereum has increased from 7.3% to nearly 12%. These figures are noteworthy: when Ethereum gains market share, capital often tests other coins, making ETH a bridge for major altcoin cycles.

However, the dominance index of other altcoins has not yet increased. This is a factor traders need to monitor closely because when this index rises, it will be a clear signal for altcoin season.

If Bitcoin remains in the $80,000–$90,000 range, altcoins will have the opportunity to consolidate support levels. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops too quickly, fear will return. If Bitcoin surges too strongly, all attention will shift back to this coin. Therefore, a stable Bitcoin is unusual but very beneficial for altcoins.

Macro factors – The key to activating altcoin season

For the market to explode, new capital must enter. This is why many experts are watching the actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed may pause its QT (quantitative tightening) policy, meaning it will stop withdrawing money from the financial system. When QT ends, the money supply increases, creating favorable conditions for the market.

In 2020, after QT stopped, altcoins grew over 1,000% due to new capital inflows. While no one can guarantee history will repeat itself, many traders see similarities in the current environment.

Recently, liquidation events have been frequent, with sharp drops followed by quick recoveries on charts, forcing traders to close positions. However, many coins have maintained support levels, not breaking as feared.

In previous cycles, this often signaled that the market was preparing for an upward trend.

Investors believe the market is self-filtering: weak investors leave, strong investors continue to hold. While not an absolute guarantee, this phenomenon is widely observed.

Capital rotation within altcoins – Not uniform for all

If altcoin season truly occurs, not all coins will rise simultaneously. Major coins like ETH, SOL, or TON usually lead the trend. When these stabilize, capital shifts to mid-cap coins, and eventually to small-cap coins as market confidence consolidates.

Some experts predict that altcoin dominance could reach 25% in 2026—the highest since 2017. While it’s still early to confirm, these figures are being discussed.

Increasing dominance over time | Source: X Macro investor Raoul Pal advises traders to stay calm and avoid emotional decisions that could lead to buying too late in altcoin season. He recommends allocating only 5%–10% of the portfolio to risky coins, with the rest based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other major coins. While not suitable advice for everyone, it helps many avoid panic.

Currently, the first signs of altcoin season are emerging. Some factors have converged, others remain unclear. Bitcoin’s slowdown could be the final piece that completes the picture. Although no one is certain if altcoin season will truly explode, the market shows that it is entirely possible.